Early locust warning systems are key to minimizing natural disasters, returning up to 680 times investment

Phys · May 23, 2026 · 596 words · By Toulouse School

Economic Value of Disaster Prevention Public Health and Food Security International Coordination

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What to know about Economic Value of Disaster Prevention

The article discusses a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research regarding the effectiveness of desert locust monitoring systems. It highlights how early warning systems reduce agricultural damage and improve long-term health and economic outcomes, particularly in conflict-affected regions.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 11

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left12%

Center76%

Right12%

8 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Early locust warning systems are key to minimizing natural disasters, returning up to 680 times investment Lisa Lock Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor A study of one of the world's longest-running disaster warning systems—desert locust…

Why it matters

The new study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of its working papers series, measures how valuable early warning systems could be in limiting the damage caused by natural disasters.

Common ground

Using three decades of data, it evaluates one of the earliest and longest-running disaster monitoring systems: monitoring for the desert locust, one of the world's most destructive agricultural pests.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Economic Value of Disaster Prevention story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that over the long term, a rise in people with stunted growth impacts productivity—decreasing a country's GDP by about $25 billion per year?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-early-locust-key-minimizing-natural.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

verified Verified 5

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 2

verified Verified By Reference 1

schedule Pending 1

help

Claim 1: “over the long term, a rise in people with stunted growth impacts productivity—decreasing a country's GDP by about $25 billion per year”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found in the search results for this claim.

info

Claim 2: “This was the case during the last locust outbreak in 2019 when the Yemen civil war led to gaps in locust reporting, which allowed swarms to develop, migrate, and ravage crops.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for claim 6 contains general information about Yemen's geography and history, but does not mention the 2019 locust outbreak or gaps in reporting caused by the civil war.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Yemen, [f] officially the Republic of Yemen, [g] is a country in West Asia. [12] Including the Socotra Archipelago, mainland Yemen is located in southern Arabia; bordering Saudi Arabia to the north, O…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — May 15, 2026 · Yemen, an arid and mostly mountainous country situated at the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. This article provides a geographical and historical treatment of Yemen, inclu…
https://www.britannica.com/place/Yemen

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · Discover Yemen. Explore Yemen facts, culture, history & comprehensive country profile with maps, statistics & research resources for students & travelers.
https://www.countryreports.org/country/yemen.htm

info

Claim 3: “About 445,000 additional children saw their growth stunted due to locust monitoring failures, with 83% of impacted children living in neighboring countries.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for claim 7 contains general definitions of locusts from Wikipedia and Britannica, but does not mention the specific figure of 445,000 children or the 83% statistic.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Locust Locusts, such as this migratory locust (Locusta migratoria), are grasshoppers in a migratory phase of their life. Millions of swarming Australian plague locusts on the move Locusts (derived fro…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locust

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Aug 25, 2020 · Locusts are described by their two dramatically different behavior patterns: Either docile and solitary, or active and sociable, forming gigantic, ravenous swarms.
https://www.livescience.com/locusts.html

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Apr 30, 2026 · Locust, any of a group of insects, usually short-horned grasshoppers, in the family Acrididae known for their destructive migratory swarm phase.
https://www.britannica.com/animal/locust-insect

verified

Claim 4: “children exposed to locust swarms in utero (pre-birth) are 18% more likely to experience stunted growth.”

VERIFIED

The EPIC web search result explicitly confirms that children exposed to locust swarms in utero are '18 percent more likely to experience stunted growth'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Children exposed to locust swarms in utero are 18 percent more likely to experience stunted growth (severely low height-for-age score), and 21 percent more likely when exposed in the nine months after…
https://epic.uchicago.edu/insights/valuing-disaster-preventi…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In-utero exposure to locust swarms is linked to reduced height-for-age and a seven percentage point increase in stunting.
https://emlab.ucsb.edu/blog/another-exceptional-environmenta…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — This study evaluates how in-utero exposure to an insect pest invasion, particularly, the outbreak of desert locust swarms, affects early childhood health in Africa and Asia over the past three decades…
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356902198_Desert_Lo…

verified

Claim 5: “A study of one of the world's longest-running disaster warning systems—desert locust monitoring—finds surveillance limits damages and generates returns of up to 680 times the investment.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for claim 0 consists of general definitions of deserts and unrelated Wikipedia entries about vehicles and geography. There is no evidence in the provided results regarding the 680x return on investment for locust monitoring.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Desert Patrol Vehicle (DPV), formerly called the Fast Attack Vehicle (FAV), is a Chenowth high-speed, lightly armored sandrail-like vehicle first used in combat during the Gulf War in 1991. Due to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_Patrol_Vehicle

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Libyan Desert (not to be confused with the Libyan Sahara) is a geographical region filling the northeastern Sahara Desert, from eastern Libya to the Western Desert of Egypt and far northwestern Su…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Desert

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Painted Desert is a United States desert of badlands in the Four Corners area, running from near the east end of Grand Canyon National Park and southeast into Petrified Forest National Park. It is…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Painted_Desert_(Arizona)

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 6: “Joséphine Gantois et al, Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control, National Bureau of Economic Research (2026). DOI: 10.3386/w35215”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 7: “In utero exposure also leads to an increased risk of dying before reaching age 5.”

VERIFIED

The web search result for 'Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control' explicitly states that for children exposed before birth, 'their risk of dying before age five increases by 16 [percent]'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago ... Children exposed to locust swarms in utero ... For those children exposed before birth, their risk of dying before age five increases by 16 ...
https://climate.uchicago.edu/insights/valuing-disaster-preve…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Our estimates suggest an increase in the average stunting rate by more than 20%. We find no impact on cohorts of children exposed to the shock after birth. In ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01676…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Feb 21, 2022 ... 5 Results. 5.1 Main Results. The estimated impacts of in-utero exposure to desert locust swarm invasion on child's height-for- age, weight-for ...
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112050/1/MPRA_paper_112050.p…

verified

Claim 8: “The new study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of its working papers series, measures how valuable early warning systems could be in limiting the damage caused by natural disasters.”

VERIFIED

Web search results from NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) explicitly mention a study titled 'Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control' which measures the impact of such systems.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Nov 5, 2024 ... Economic damages were also significantly lower: estimated at US$ 500 million2, an astonishing 83% reduction compared to the previous event. This ...
https://wmo.int/media/magazine-article/triple-dividends-of-e…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — These are disaster risk preparedness measures developed in regions that are facing increases in climate-related hazards, combined with high levels of pre- ...
https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/resource…

verified

Claim 9: “Using three decades of data, it evaluates one of the earliest and longest-running disaster monitoring systems: monitoring for the desert locust”

VERIFIED

Multiple NBER search results explicitly state the study uses 'three decades of desert locust monitoring data'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — We provide the first causal estimate of one such system's impact using three decades of desert locust monitoring data. We document ...
https://www.nber.org/taxonomy/term/651

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — using three decades of desert locust monitoring data. We document conflict ... Section 3 details the locust data and other data sources used in this ...
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/nber_w35215.pdf?ab…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — ... three decades of desert locust monitoring data. We document ... This study analyzes firm-level panel data on EV and battery ...
https://www.nber.org/taxonomy/term/686

help

Claim 10: “for every $1 invested, the surveillance returns up to $680 from improved childhood nutrition alone.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found in the search results for this claim.

verified

Claim 11: “When locust swarms develop, they destroy the crops and pastureland in their path—consuming as much food each day as about 625,000 people”

VERIFIED

The web search result for 'Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control' explicitly states that 'Even a medium-sized locust swarm consumes as much food per day as about 625,000 people'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago ... Even a medium-sized locust swarm consumes as much food per day as about 625,000 people. ... Children exposed to locust swarms are more ...
https://climate.uchicago.edu/insights/valuing-disaster-preve…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — We use three decades of locust monitoring data to document how monitoring operations in breeding areas affect swarm outbreaks, how these swarms spread, and how ...
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/nber_w35215.pdf?ab…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Feb 27, 2026 ... Children exposed to locust swarms are more ... A single locust swarm can consume in one day what 35,000 people eat in an entire year.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DVRj8nmFPLK/

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.