‘Drive-off’ fuel thefts cost $80 million even before the war – and they’re heading up

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Mar 26, 2026 · 886 words · By Terry Goldsworthy

headphones Listen to the eFinder podcast briefing

Generate a natural audio summary of this story

Daily briefing

What to know about ‘Drive-off’ fuel thefts cost $80 million even before the war – and they’re heading up

The article examines the correlation between rising fuel prices and increased fuel theft in Australia, citing studies from NSW, the UK, and Germany that show a떘 relationship between price spikes and theft rates. It includes statistics on theft trends across states and details law enforcement responses.

Propaganda risk 0%

Claims checked 17

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center83%

Right17%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

With petrol and diesel prices soaring, we’re hearing more reports of alleged fuel thefts from petrol stations, farms, trucks and even parked cars.

Why it matters

Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association’s chief executive officer Rowan Lee told AAP this week that fuel theft from service stations had increased by between 8–30% nationally since the start of the Middle East war.

Common ground

Even before the conflict began, fuel theft was costing retailers around A$80 million a year.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: ‘Drive-off’ fuel thefts cost $80 million even before the war – and they’re heading up?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Queensland Police sent 4,723 messages to suspected drive-off thieves in 2019, resulting in 2,190 drivers paying?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/drive-off-fuel-thefts-cost-80million-even-before-the…

analyticsAnalysis

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 17 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 7

help Insufficient Evidence 7

verified Verified By Reference 3

schedule

Claim 1: “Queensland Police sent 4,723 messages to suspected drive-off thieves in 2019, resulting in 2,190 drivers paying.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 2: “For every 10 cent increase in petrol price, the report estimated up to 120 extra reported incidents of service station fraud in NSW.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support the 120 incidents per 10 cent price increase claim.

schedule

Claim 3: “In NSW, fuel drive-offs are typically prosecuted as fraud, not theft, due to voluntary fuel provision.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 4: “A report by the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research found a strong correlation between higher petrol prices and petrol theft.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia entries about New South Wales and baseball contain no information about crime statistics, petrol theft, or studies linking prices to theft. No evidence supports the 1998–2006 NSW study claim.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Baseball NSW is the governing body of baseball within New South Wales (NSW). Baseball NSW is governed by the Australian Baseball Federation. It is located in Rooty Hill in Greater Western Sydney, and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_NSW

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — New South Wales (commonly abbreviated as NSW) is a state on the east coast of Australia. It borders Queensland to the north, Victoria to the south, and South Australia to the west. Its coast borders t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Sydney is the capital city of the state of New South Wales, and is the most populous city in Australia. Located on Australia's east coast, the metropolis surrounds Sydney Harbour and extends about 80 …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney

schedule

Claim 5: “NSW 'fail-to-pay' drive-offs rose from 9,097 in 2016 to 13,423 by late 2025, peaking at 15,326 in 2024.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 6: “Service station fraud in any given month can be predicted from the average petrol price one month earlier.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support the predictive relationship between petrol prices and fraud incidents.

help

Claim 7: “A 2023 study of English and Welsh fuel thefts found sudden petrol price surges were significantly associated with higher theft levels.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support the 2023 UK study linking price surges to fuel theft.

help

Claim 8: “97 first-time offenders were involved in fuel thefts in South Australia during the reported surge.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support the 97 first-time offenders in South Australia's fuel theft surge.

verified

Claim 9: “Fuel theft was costing retailers around A$80 million a year even before the Middle East war began.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia sources discuss Middle East energy and economic impacts but provide no quantitative data on fuel theft costs to Australian retailers. No sources confirm the A$80 million figure.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to what has been described as the most severe global supply disruption since at least the 1970s, characterized by the Internat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_2026_Ir…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Energy in the Middle East describes energy and electricity production, consumption, import, natural gas, ecological concerns and climate change in the Middle East.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_Middle_East

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Middle East is a geopolitical region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, the Levant, and Turkey. The term came into widespread usage by Western European nations in the early 20t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East

help

Claim 10: “South Australian police reported a 37% jump in fuel thefts to 221 incidents in the week ending March 15.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support South Australia's 37% fuel theft increase claim.

help

Claim 11: “A 2015 German study found fuel price had a statistically significant effect on increasing fuel theft.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support the 2015 German study on fuel prices and theft.

schedule

Claim 12: “Maximum penalties for fuel theft in some states can be five to ten years in jail.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 13: “A UK study found a 'positive crime-price elasticity' for fuel, meaning higher fuel prices correlate with increased theft.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia sources to support the UK study on fuel price elasticity and theft.

schedule

Claim 14: “Police in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia have dedicated websites for reporting fuel drive-offs.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 15: “Queensland recorded around 27,800 fuel drive-off offences in the 2018-19 financial year, averaging 76 per day.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 16: “Fuel theft from service stations in Australia increased by between 8–30% nationally since the start of the Middle East war.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia entries provide general context about the Middle East and its economic impact but contain no data on fuel theft rates in Australia. No sources directly address fuel theft statistics or percentage increases.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Diesel fuel, also called diesel oil, fuel oil (historically), or simply diesel, is any liquid fuel specifically designed for use in a diesel engine, a type of internal combustion engine in which fuel …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_fuel

menu_book

schedule

Claim 17: “Queensland fuel drive-offs dropped to 61 per day by mid-2025, projecting 22,300 offences by year-end.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.