Does the 4% retirement rule still work? New research points to another strategy to maximize income

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · Jul 29, 2026 · 1001 words · By Lorie Konish

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What to know about Does the 4% retirement rule still work? New research points to another strategy to maximize income

Today's workers entering retirement face one big dilemma: What is the best way to turn their nest eggs into a steady stream of income?

Claims checked 11

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center88%

Right12%

8 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Today's workers entering retirement face one big dilemma: What is the best way to turn their nest eggs into a steady stream of income?

Why it matters

One traditional approach — the 4% rule, whereby retirees can withdraw that portion of their portfolio in their first year of retirement and then adjust that rate for inflation thereafter — is not necessarily the best answer, according to new research by Mark…

Common ground

"There's significant risk there in terms of outliving your assets," Warshawsky said.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Does the 4% retirement rule still work? New research points to another strategy to maximize income?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that In December, investment research provider Morningstar said 3.9% is the highest starting safe withdrawal rate for retirees?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/retirement-income-4percent-rule.html

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 7

help Insufficient Evidence 2

verified Verified By Reference 1

schedule Pending 1

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Claim 1: “In December, investment research provider Morningstar said 3.9% is the highest starting safe withdrawal rate for retirees.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources report that Morningstar's 2025/2026 reports set the safe withdrawal rate at 3.9%.

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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 3, 2025 · As shown in the table below, we estimate that a new retiree planning for a 30-year time horizon can safely withdraw 3.9% of a portfolio with an equity weighting of between 30% and 50%.
https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/whats-safe-retirement…

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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 9, 2026 · Morningstar now pegs 3.9% as the highest “safe” starting withdrawal rate for retirees who want steady, inflation-adjusted income over a 30-year retirement with a 90% chance of not runnin…
https://www.retirementliving.com/morningstar-revises-the-ira…

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web search NEUTRAL — May 18, 2026 · Morningstar published its sixth annual State of Retirement Income study late last year, and for 2026 the firm raised its base-case safe starting withdrawal rate to 3.9%, up from 3.7% in…
https://marketreview.news/education/2026-05-18-morningstar-s…

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Claim 2: “new research by Mark Warshawsky, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank, and by Gaobo Pang, an independent researcher”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results confirm that Mark Warshawsky (AEI) and Gaobo Pang conducted research on retirement income strategies and wealth distribution.

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web search NEUTRAL — Gaobo Pang. Mark J. Warshawsky.This analysis puts forward good wealth distribution strategies for individuals and couples in retirement, considering trade-offs of wealth preservation and income securi…
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1623308

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web search NEUTRAL — A recent study supported by ACLI sheds light on effective retirement income strategies, particularly the benefits of including annuities over the conventional “4% rule.”
https://at.naifa.org/new-research-highlights-the-benefits-of…

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web search NEUTRAL — Subscribe. Donate. American Enterprise Institute – AEI.Abstract We study retirement income strategies using systematic withdrawals from liquid assets, guaranteed immediate life annuities, and combinat…
https://www.aei.org/research-products/journal-publication/ne…

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Claim 3: “Warshawsky, who served as deputy commissioner for retirement and disability policy at the Social Security Administration from 2017 through 2021.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm Mark Warshawsky's specific tenure as deputy commissioner at the SSA from 2017-2021.

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Claim 4: “with a more flexible approach, retirees can withdraw up to 5.7% of their starting portfolio, the firm said in its 2025 State of Retirement Income report.”

CORROBORATED

Morningstar's 2025 research is cited as stating that flexible strategies can increase the starting withdrawal rate to 5.7%.

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web search NEUTRAL — As discussed in Section I, we found that an all-equity portfolio could support a 3.4% starting spending rate for retirees making fixed real withdrawals each year, assuming a 90% probability of having …
https://static.twentyoverten.com/5b5730126af0247efe4f2066/zT…

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web search NEUTRAL — Morningstar's 2025 research indicates that the starting safe withdrawal rate for retirees is 3.9%, with a potential increase to 5.7% through flexible withdrawal strategies.
https://www.scribd.com/document/1021589622/Morningstar-the-S…

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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 3, 2025 · However, the research notes that with flexible strategies, like delaying Social Security, implementing a “guardrails” approach, and including Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP…
https://401kspecialistmag.com/flexible-strategies-can-surge-…

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Claim 5: “the 4% rule, whereby retirees can withdraw that portion of their portfolio in their first year of retirement and then adjust that rate for inflation thereafter”

CORROBORATED

Multiple financial sources describe the 4% rule as withdrawing 4% in the first year and adjusting for inflation thereafter.

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web search NEUTRAL — The 4% rule has you withdrawing 4% of your IRA or 401(k) balance your first year of retirement. From there, you adjust subsequent withdrawals in line with inflation. A smiling person who looks to be o…
https://www.fool.com/retirement/2026/07/18/the-4-rule-is-far…

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web search NEUTRAL — Most people enter retirement without any idea how to manage withdrawing their savings without running out of money. Here is what you need to know.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/12/business/retirement-asset…

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web search NEUTRAL — Financial experts say the traditional 4% retirement withdrawal rule may need adjusting for 2025 based on current market conditions.According to this strategy, retirees would withdraw 4% of their nest …
https://www.devx.com/daily-news/adjusting-the-4-rule-for-202…

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Claim 6: “Warshawsky and Pang's new research is published and funded by the American Council of Life Insurers.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources explicitly state the research was supported/funded by the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Boy Scouts of America, doing business as Scouting America, is the largest Scouting organization and one of the largest youth organizations in the United States, with over 1 million youth, including ne…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scouting_America

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is an American multinational finance and insurance corporation with operations in more than 200 countries and jurisdictions. As of 2023, AIG employed 25,200 pe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_International_Group

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) is the leading trade association driving public policy and advocacy on behalf of the life insurance industry. Based in Washington, D.C., ACLI advocates on …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Council_of_Life_Insur…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 7: “By bridging — or using savings to cover spending until the highest Social Security claiming age of 70 — retirees can increase their monthly checks”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

While this is a general principle of Social Security, no specific evidence from the provided search results was gathered to verify this claim in the context of the article's specific arguments.

verified

Claim 8: “The 4% rule was developed by financial planner William Bengen in the 1990s”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and multiple web sources confirm William Bengen developed the 4% rule in the 1990s (specifically 1994).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 4% rule (sometimes called the rule of 25) is a widely-cited retirement spend-down rule-of-thumb, credited to William Bengen, that says that a retiree can safely withdraw an inflation-adjusted 4% o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4%_rule

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) movement is a personal finance phenomenon characterized by high savings rates—often exceeding the 10–15% typically recommended by financial planners—and…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_movement

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — William P. Bengen is a retired financial adviser who first articulated the 4% withdrawal rate ("four percent rule") as a rule of thumb for withdrawal rates from retirement savings; it is eponymously k…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Bengen

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “a record number of baby boomers reach the milestone age of 65, when they become eligible for Medicare”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 10: “The research is based on the scenario of an individual who retires at age 65, has $1 million in retirement savings and receives around $25,700 per year in Social Security benefits.”

CORROBORATED

Benzinga and other reports specifically mention the model of a 65-year-old with $1 million in savings and $25,700 in annual Social Security benefits.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Long-term care (LTC) is a variety of services that help meet both the medical and non-medical needs of people with a chronic illness or disability who cannot care for themselves for long periods. Long…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-term_care

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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The researchers evaluated four retirement income strategies for a hypothetical 65-year-old with $1 million in retirement savings and about $25,700 in annual Social Security benefits.
https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/financial-advisors…

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web search NEUTRAL — Nov 6, 2024 · Retirement Experts Mark Warshawsky and Gaobo Pang find value of annuities applies widely in retirement income strategies. View the white paper here.
https://www.lifehealth.com/evaluating-the-role-of-life-annui…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 11: “In his 2025 book, Bengen said some retirees may be able to safely withdraw more than 4%.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results indicate that William Bengen has concluded in subsequent research that the 4% rate is likely too low and that retirees may be able to withdraw more (some sources mention 4.7%). While the specific '2025 book' title isn't explicitly named, the sentiment of his updated research is corroborated.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.