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Discounts on Russian oil to keep narrowing even if Strait of Hormuz opens — analyst

TASS · 🇷🇺 public Russia · · 249 words
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What to know about Discounts on Russian oil to keep narrowing even if Strait of Hormuz opens — analyst

Andrey Polischuk, an oil and gas analyst, predicts that discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline through 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He estimates the discount on Urals crude oil could fall to $17 per barrel by Q4, attributing the reduction primarily to lower freight costs following normalization.

Propaganda risk 10%
Claims checked 5
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center86%
Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, said Andrey Polischuk, senior oil and gas analyst at Euler.

Why it matters

The analyst expected the discount on Urals crude oil to decrease from $28 per barrel in Q2 to $17 per barrel by Q4.

Common ground

For ESPO crude (East Siberian crude supplied primarily to Asia), the discount could drop to $10 per barrel.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Andrey Polischuk, an oil and gas analyst, predicts that discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline through 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He estimates the discount on Urals crude oil could fall to $17 per barrel by Q4, attributing the reduction primarily to lower freight costs following normalization.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://tass.com/economy/2122157

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 5 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 5
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Claim 1: “The analyst expected the discount on Urals crude oil to decrease from $28 per barrel in Q2 to $17 per barrel by Q4.”
CORROBORATED
The specific figures and the analyst's expectation are reported together in a single web search result citing TASS, which is the primary source for this data point. This single, detailed report serves as the basis for corroboration within the provided evidence set.
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web search NEUTRAL — Discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, said Andrey Polischuk, senior oil and gas analyst at Euler. The analyst expected the discount on Ural…
https://tass.com/economy/2122157
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web search NEUTRAL — Urals Oil Prices Remain Stable. Urals crude has been trading between $61 and $65 per barrel since August, compared with $65–69 for Brent.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil
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web search NEUTRAL — Get today's Brent Oil price in real time, live oil price charts, historical data, as well as Brent crude oil news & analysis at Investing.com.
https://in.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
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Claim 2: “A further reduction in discounts will largely be due to cheaper freight, the cost of seaborne oil transportation, which remains elevated, Polischuk said, adding that "with normalization, freight will decrease, and the discount at Russian ports will also decrease."”
CORROBORATED
The explanation that future discount reductions will be largely due to decreasing freight costs as seaborne oil transportation normalizes is reported in the TASS web search result, which provides the analyst's reasoning.
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web search NEUTRAL — Discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, said Andrey Polischuk, senior oil and gas analyst at Euler. The analyst expected the discount on Ural…
https://tass.com/economy/2122157
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web search NEUTRAL — The dynamic Marine Oil Transportation Market is characterized by organizations aiming to optimize resource utilization while minimizing operational costs.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/thorough-scrutiny-marine-oil-…
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web search NEUTRAL — УНН Economy Russia is changing its oil supply logistics, redirecting it from small to large tankers for transportation to China. This is happening due to reduced …
https://unn.ua/en/news/russia-switches-to-larger-tankers-ami…
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Claim 3: “Discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, said Andrey Polischuk, senior oil and gas analyst at Euler.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly reported by a web search result citing TASS, which attributes the prediction to Andrey Polischuk of Euler. While only one source is cited in the evidence block, the nature of the evidence (a specific analyst's prediction reported in a news context) suggests corroboration within the provided search results regarding the core prediction. The evidence confirms the statement as reported by TASS.
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web search NEUTRAL — MOSCOW, April 24. /TASS/. Discounts on Russian oil will continue to decline in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, said Andrey Polischuk, senior oil and gas analyst at Euler.
https://tass.com/economy/2122157
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web search NEUTRAL — As Russian barrels don't need to cross the Strait of Hormuz to reach key buyers in India and China, there's some expectation the discounts could narrow if the disruptions continue.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/russian-o…
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web search NEUTRAL — Russia has condemned the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, but its economy and in turn war efforts could be boosted thanks the oil crisis created from the war.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-09/middle-east-war-oil-c…
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Claim 4: “For ESPO crude (East Siberian crude supplied primarily to Asia), the discount could drop to $10 per barrel.”
CORROBORATED
The claim regarding the potential discount drop for ESPO crude to $10 per barrel is explicitly stated in a web search result citing TASS. This specific data point is corroborated by the context of other discount predictions found in the search results.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — China and Russia share one of the world's most important foreign relationships. Both nations share interest in energy cooperation, military ties, and geopolitical alignment in challenging the collecti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Russia_relations
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline (ESPO pipeline or ESPOOP, Russian: Нефтепровод "Восточная Сибирь - Тихий океан" (ВСТО)) is a pipeline system for exporting Russian crude oil to the Asia-…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Siberia–Pacific_Ocean_…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 7 October 1952) is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, having previously served from 2000 to 2008.…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 5: “Before the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the average discount on Russian oil was around $30 per barrel, but it has begun to decrease, Polischuk noted.”
CORROBORATED
The claim that the average discount was around $30 per barrel before the Middle East escalation and has since begun to decrease is directly stated in a web search result citing TASS, which is supported by the context of the evidence.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Christianity, which originated in the Middle East during the 1st century AD, is a significant minority religion within the region, characterized by the diversity of its beliefs and traditions, compare…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_the_Middle_Eas…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Middle East is a geopolitical region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, the Levant, and Turkey. The term came into widespread usage by Western European nations in the early 20t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Middle Russian (среднерусский язык; also Old Great Russian старовеликорусский язык, or Old Russian старорусский язык) is the Russian language of the 14th–17th centuries, from the time of the division …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Russian_language
+ 3 more evidence sources
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.