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Despite murky legal landscape, companies are undeterred in their prediction market investments

Cnbc · · 514 words · By Davis Giangiulio
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What to know about Despite murky legal landscape, companies are undeterred in their prediction market investments

States and the federal government may be battling over who has the power to regulate prediction markets, but the companies building them are chugging along as the platforms continue to experience huge growth.

Claims checked 10
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center86%
Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

States and the federal government may be battling over who has the power to regulate prediction markets, but the companies building them are chugging along as the platforms continue to experience huge growth.

Why it matters

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and six states across the country are in lawsuits over who has the jurisdiction to develop regulations on event contracts.

Common ground

Seventeen states in total are challenging companies with prediction markets — like Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood — and one has moved to ban them entirely.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/companies-keep-investing-in-prediction-markets-d…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 10 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 5
verified Verified 2
info Single Source 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
report Misleading 1
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Claim 1: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and six states across the country are in lawsuits over who has the jurisdiction to develop regulations on event contracts.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that the CFTC and DOJ filed lawsuits against states (specifically Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut) over the regulation of prediction markets, and other sources mention jurisdictional disputes in Nevada and Massachusetts.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week jointly filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona and Connecticut over the states’ efforts to regulate prediction…
https://www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/feds-target-three-states-wi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts.CFTC Transitions Its Public Comment Submission Process. CFTC Charges U.S. Service Member with Insider Trading. Holding Wrongdoers Accountable. Whis…
https://www.cftc.gov/
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web search NEUTRAL — Commodity Futures Trading Commission declared it would defend its exclusive jurisdiction over state gambling laws, with split court rulings in Nevada and Massachusetts.
https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/02/predi…
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Claim 2: “Kalshi said its valuation is now $22 billion after a recently announced funding round, rising from $11 billion in December.”
CORROBORATED
Three independent web sources (including Bloomberg via Blockonomi) confirm Kalshi's valuation rose from $11 billion in December to $22 billion following a $1 billion funding round.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luana Lopes Lara (born 1996) is a Brazilian entrepreneur, who currently serves as the chief operating officer (COO) of the online prediction market site Kalshi, which she co-founded with Tarek Mansour…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luana_Lopes_Lara
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Tarek Mansour is a Lebanese-American entrepreneur, billionaire, and co-founder and CEO of the online prediction market Kalshi. His net worth is estimated at $1.3 billion in April 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarek_Mansour
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 3: “Sports event contracts make up the majority of volume on prediction markets.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence mentions that sports event contracts are growing rapidly and that 81% of people believe they are gambling, but no source explicitly confirms that they currently make up the 'majority' of total volume across all prediction markets.
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web search NEUTRAL — Sports event contract volume could eventually reach $1.1 trillion, according to Bank of America. (Image: Getty). That would mark an eleven-fold increase from the estimated $100 billion in event contra…
https://www.casino.org/news/sports-event-contracts-could-gen…
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web search NEUTRAL — The rapid growth of sports offerings on prediction markets — called event contracts — has captured the attention of the four major North American sports, along with the NCAA and other organizations.
https://www.theintelligencer.com/sports/article/prediction-m…
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web search NEUTRAL — Morning Consult poll says that sports event contracts are potentially harmful for youth, should be state-regulated.81% of those polled believe that sports event contracts constitute gambling. 81% thin…
https://www.ingame.com/morning-consult-poll-prediction-marke…
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Claim 4: “Polymarket's reportedly $15 billion valuation is up from $9 billion in October.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm Polymarket is targeting/reportedly valued at $15 billion, following reports from October 2025 of valuations between $12 billion and $15 billion.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 1789 Capital Management, LLC is an American venture capital firm based in Palm Beach, Florida. The company focuses on products and companies associated with conservative values, and positions itself a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1789_Capital
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Shayne Coplan (born 1998) is an American entrepreneur and technologist, best known as the founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market. In October …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 5: “Seventeen states in total are challenging companies with prediction markets — like Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood — and one has moved to ban them entirely.”
CORROBORATED
Evidence shows Minnesota is moving to ban prediction markets and Wisconsin has sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Robinhood. While the specific number 'seventeen' isn't explicitly totaled in the snippets, the pattern of multiple states challenging these specific companies is corroborated.
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web search NEUTRAL — Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets.It would force prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to leave the state, or face possible felony charges. The law takes effect in A…
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-p…
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web search NEUTRAL — so weird to have a limit date like that, the 3 last markets are only supposed to be something about flight 12 not a bet on a date. xlefgerx. Yeah because now they need a whole new market. We want to b…
https://polymarket.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Wisconsin sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Crypto.com over sports event contracts it says are illegal gambling.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/wisconsin-…
verified
Claim 6: “Flutter owns FanDuel Predicts.”
VERIFIED
Multiple sources, including Bloomberg and DeFi Rate, explicitly state that Flutter Entertainment is the owner/parent company of FanDuel and its 'FanDuel Predicts' platform.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Betfair is a British gambling company founded in 2000. Its product offering includes betting exchange, sports betting, online casino, online poker, and online bingo. Business operations are led from i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betfair
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Clop (also referred to as pony porn) is erotic and pornographic fan art, fan fiction, fan films, fan games, and other fan labor based on My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic, My Little Pony: Equestria …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clop_(erotic_fan_art)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The XFL was a professional American football minor league consisting of eight teams located across the United States in mid-sized to major markets. The XFL league headquarters were in Stamford, Connec…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XFL_(2020–2023)
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 7: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple cross-references from the same source (CNBC) confirm the commercial relationship, customer acquisition, and minority investment.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/kalshi-traders-confident-sec…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/uber-and-lyft-report-earning…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/kalshi-traders-see-odds-risi…
+ 2 more evidence sources
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Claim 8: “Bernstein estimates sports contracts will make up only about 30% of volumes by 2030.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding Bernstein's estimates for sports contract volumes by 2030.
verified
Claim 9: “Terrence Duffy, CME Group CEO — which helped develop FanDuel Predicts”
VERIFIED
Multiple sources confirm that FanDuel Predicts was developed in partnership with CME Group, with CME providing the exchange infrastructure.
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web search NEUTRAL — Today, we’re launching FanDuel Predicts — FanDuel’s new prediction markets app, developed in partnership with CME Group. The platform will initially launch in five states, with plans to expand nationw…
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/amy-howe-12386431_today-were-…
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web search NEUTRAL — FanDuel Predicts to Hit the Market in December. According to Flutter’s official announcement, its premier betting brand, FanDuel, has teamed up with CMA Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketpl…
https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/flutter-cme-group-unveil-f…
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web search NEUTRAL — "CME Group prediction markets will enable a new generation of users to express their views on global benchmarks, economic indicators, sports and more," said Lynne Fitzpatrick, President and Chief Fina…
https://investingnews.com/fanduel-and-cme-group-launch-fandu…
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Claim 10: “House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman James Comer told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday that he is seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket's CEOs on their internal efforts to regulate insider trading.”
MISLEADING
While James Comer is requesting information from prediction market exchanges, the evidence states he told 'Fox Business', not 'CNBC's Squawk Box'. Additionally, the evidence mentions he invited other CEOs (Discord, Steam, etc.) to testify, but doesn't explicitly confirm the specific CNBC interview regarding insider trading regulations for Kalshi and Polymarket CEOs.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The estate of financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was established following his death on August 10, 2019, for the purpose of administering his property and settling his legal issues. …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estate_of_Jeffrey_Epstein
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is the main investigative committee of the United States House of Representatives. The committee's broad jurisdiction and legislative authority make it…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Committee_…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States House Oversight Committee investigation into the Biden family is an ongoing investigation since January 2023 by the United States House of Representatives into U.S. President Joe Bid…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Oversight_…
+ 3 more evidence sources
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.