DemosAU gives Labor one of its worst poll results this term

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Apr 17, 2026 · 1127 words · By Adrian Beaumont

Political Polling Data Comparative Electoral Analysis

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What to know about Political Polling Data

The article reviews various recent political polls (DemosAU, Morgan, Redbridge) detailing primary vote percentages and approval ratings for major political parties and figures. It provides detailed breakdowns of voting patterns across demographics and covers international election results from the US, Canada, and Hungary, concluding with analysis of the South Australian election results.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 40

Techniques found 1

Topics 2

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center50%

Right50%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

A DemosAU poll has Labor down three points on primary votes since February to just 26%, with Labor and One Nation now tied.

Why it matters

The total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was steady at 49% while the total for Labor and the Greens was down two points to 39%.

Common ground

Other recent federal polls have been much better for Labor than this DemosAU poll, and a Morgan poll that was taken last week gave Labor a big lead.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Selective Omission: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Polling Data story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Among young women, the Greens had 38%, Labor 26%, the Coalition 14% and One Nation 11%?
How does this story connect Political Polling Data with Comparative Electoral Analysis over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/demosau-gives-labor-one-of-its-worst-poll-results-th…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Selective Omission 40% confidence

Deliberately leaving out important context or facts that would change interpretation.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing selective omission helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 40 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 30

check_circle Corroborated 7

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “Among young women, the Greens had 38%, Labor 26%, the Coalition 14% and One Nation 11%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 2: “The primary vote leader won 45 of the 47 seats, with independents winning Finniss (from fourth on primary votes) and Kavel (from second).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 3: “They led by 54–46 on 2025 election preference flows, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 4: “Gen X men gave the right a 53–38 lead and Gen X women gave the right a 52–38 lead.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “Only 13 of the 47 seats were “classic” Labor vs Liberal contests, while 25 were Labor vs One Nation.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 6: “Primary votes were 26% Labor (down three since the February DemosAU poll), 26% One Nation (down two), 23% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (up one) and 12% for all Others (up two).”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific breakdown of primary votes (Labor 26%, One Nation 26%, Coalition 23%, Greens 13%, Others 12%) is detailed in one web search result, but this exact combination of figures and directional changes is not corroborated by other independent sources provided.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2028 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individ…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2028_Q…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 7: “There are 12 candidates for this byelection, with One Nation, independent Michelle Milthorpe and the Liberals the main prospects.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 8: “Combining the Labor and Greens votes against the One Nation and Coalition votes gives the left a 63–31 lead among Gen Z men and a 64–25 lead among Gen Z women.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 9: “At the Hungarian April 12 election, Viktor Orbán’s far-right Fidesz that has governed for the last 16 years was thumped by a conservative and pro-European party.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 10: “Angus Taylor’s initial net approval was -3 (28% negative, 25% positive).”

CORROBORATED

The claim that Angus Taylor's initial net approval was -3 (28% negative, 25% positive) is reported in multiple web search results, corroborating the data point.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Angus Taylor’s initial net approval was -3 (28% negative, 25% positive). Pauline Hanson’s net approval was steady at -5 (39% negative, 34% positive). By 47–28, respondents did not think the United Sta…
https://www.noticer.news/one-nation-labor-demosau-poll/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Angus Taylor blames Labor for fuel standards that forced an oil refinery to export petrol, but the standards were created by the coalition.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-poli…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — His net approval ratings for prices and inflation—the issue Americans care most about—is -35. The Iran war, which has pushed up prices across the board and especially at the pumps, has also hurt him.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

schedule

Claim 11: “For Gen X men, One Nation had 35%, Labor 32%, the Coalition 18% and the Greens 6%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “Millenial men gave the left a 49–42 lead, but Millenial women gave the right a 46–43 lead.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 13: “For Baby Boomer women, Labor had 33%, One Nation 32%, the Coalition 24% and the Greens 3%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 14: “A national Morgan poll, conducted April 6–12 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the early April Morgan poll), One Nation 24.5% (up three), the Coalition 22.5% (down 1.5), the Greens 12.5% (up 0.5) and all Others 10.5% (down 1.5).”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the gathered evidence set for this claim, despite the claim structure suggesting specific data points.

schedule

Claim 15: “Preference flows suggest 80–85% of Greens preferenced Labor above either the Liberals or One Nation.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 16: “Of One Nation’s preferences, 65–70% favoured the Liberals above Labor, while 55–65% of Liberal preferences went to One Nation ahead of Labor.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 17: “By 59–22, they thought the government should distance itself from President Trump rather than closely support him (45–36 in January 2025 at the beginning of Trump’s term).”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the gathered evidence set for this claim, despite the claim structure suggesting specific data points.

schedule

Claim 18: “On Monday, they won three byelections in seats they already held, and now have 174 MPs, two above the 172 needed for a majority.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 19: “In an embarrassment for the electoral commission, 81 additional votes for Narungga were discovered on Thursday in a neighbouring electorate.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 20: “For Baby Boomer men, One Nation had 31%, the Coalition 30%, Labor 27% and the Greens 4%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 21: “Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to -20, with 46% giving him a negative rating and 26% a positive rating.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that Anthony Albanese's net approval was -20, based on 46% negative and 26% positive ratings, is reported by multiple web search results referencing the same poll data.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election was held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives were up for election, along with 40 of the 76 seats in the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Australian_federal_electi…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Anthony Norman Albanese (born 2 March 1963) is an Australian politician who has served as the 31st prime minister of Australia since 2022. He has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019 and the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jodie Haydon (born 1978 or 1979) is an Australian financial services professional and women's advocate. She is the wife of the 31st (and current) prime minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jodie_Haydon

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 22: “Baby Boomer men gave the right a 61–31 lead and Baby Boomer women gave the right a 56–36 lead.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 23: “With Millennial women, Labor had 28%, One Nation 27%, the Coalition 19% and the Greens 15%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 24: “Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 56–44 using respondent preferences.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 25: “Labor won Light against One Nation by just 51.6–48.4, down from a 70.1–29.9 margin against the Liberals in 2022.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 26: “With young men (Gen Z), Labor had 39% of the primary vote, the Greens 24%, One Nation 19% and the Coalition 12%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 27: “Pauline Hanson’s net approval was steady at -5 (39% negative, 34% positive).”

CORROBORATED

The claim that Pauline Hanson's net approval was -5, based on 39% negative and 34% positive ratings, is reported in multiple web search results, corroborating the data point.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Lee Hanson (née Seccombe, formerly Zagorski; born 27 May 1954) is an Australian politician who is the founder and leader of One Nation. She has been a senator for Queensland since 2016, and wa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Hanson

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson’s net approval was steady at -5 (39% negative, 34% positive). By 47–28, respondents did not think the United States was a reliable military ally for Australia.
https://volknews.com/2026/04/17/one-nation-tied-with-labor-i…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — An emotional Attorney-General George Brandis has been given a standing ovation in Parliament for slamming One Nation leader Pauline Hanson's decision to wear...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XExggl6Q-vo

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Claim 28: “A DemosAU poll has Labor down three points on primary votes since February to just 26%, with Labor and One Nation now tied.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that Labor and One Nation were tied at 26% in a DemosAU poll, with Labor down three points since February, is directly reported by multiple web search results referencing the same poll data.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_S…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 29: “The Farrer federal byelection to replace Liberal sussan Ley will be held on May 9.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 30: “By 47–28, respondents did not think the United States was a reliable military ally for Australia.”

CORROBORATED

The claim regarding the shift in views on the US military alliance (from 28% to 47%) is reported consistently across multiple web search results detailing the same poll findings.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By 47–28, respondents did not think the United States was a reliable military ally for Australia.
https://theconversation.com/demosau-gives-labor-one-of-its-w…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By 47–28, respondents did not think the United States was a reliable military ally for Australia.
https://volknews.com/2026/04/17/one-nation-tied-with-labor-i…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By 47–28, respondents did not think the United States was a reliable military ally for Australia. By 59–22, they thought the government should distance itself from President Trump rather than closely …
https://www.noticer.news/one-nation-labor-demosau-poll/

check_circle

Claim 31: “The Poll Bludger reported a national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief that was conducted April 8–14 from a sample of 1,439.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that The Poll Bludger reported a national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted from April 8–14 with a sample size of 1,439, is explicitly stated in the web search results.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2025 Australian federal election was held on 3 May 2025 to elect 150 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 out of the 76 Senate seats. At the election, the Albanese government was elected t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electorate_opinion_polling_and…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leade…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 32: “The Poll Bludger reported on a Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review. This poll was conducted March 6–19 from a large sample of 5,563.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 33: “On Friday AEST, US Democrats retained a federal seat in New Jersey, but the 11-point swing in margin from the 2024 presidential election results in that seat was much less than the 25-point swing in Georgia in the April 7 special election.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 34: “The total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was steady at 49% while the total for Labor and the Greens was down two points to 39%.”

CORROBORATED

The claim regarding the combined vote shares (Coalition/One Nation at 49% and Labor/Greens at 39%, representing a two-point decrease) is directly stated in a web search result, corroborated by the context of the same poll results reported in Claim 0.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1998 Queensland state election was held on 13 June 1998 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The result of the election was a second consecutive hung parliament, with…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Queensland_state_election

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election is scheduled to be held by 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia. The incumbent Labor government, led by P…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_electi…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a right-wing populist political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who has been a senator for Queens…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 35: “For Gen X women, One Nation 31%, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21% and the Greens 9%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 36: “analyst Kevin Bonham estimates Labor won by 57.9–42.1 against the Liberals and by 58.2–41.8 against One Nation.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 37: “The extra votes increased One Nation’s lead to 74 votes.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 38: “This would be a 3.3% swing to Labor against the Liberals since the 2022 SA election.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 39: “Since the 2025 Canadian federal election, the centre-left Liberals have gained five MPs in the House of Commons by defections.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 40: “With Millennial men, Labor had 36%, One Nation 26%, the Coalition 16% and the Greens 13%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.