Conspiracy theories: do 300,000 Kiwis really believe Canada is building an army of mutant super-raccoons?

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 11, 2026 · 879 words · By John Kerr; Mathew Marques; Matt Williams

Conspiracy Theories Survey Methodology Data Integrity

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Daily briefing

What to know about Conspiracy Theories

The authors discuss the 'Lizardman constant,' a phenomenon where survey results on uncommon beliefs are inflated by respondents who are joking or trolling. Through a study of New Zealanders, they demonstrate that removing insincere respondents significantly lowers the estimated prevalence of conspiracy theories while maintaining the validity of broader psychological patterns associated with such beliefs.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 9

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left20%

Center60%

Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Four percent of Americans – roughly 12 million people – believe that “lizard people” secretly control the Earth.

Why it matters

At least, that was the finding of an infamous 2013 public opinion survey.

Common ground

Do so many people really believe such outlandish claims?

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Conspiracy Theories story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Combined, 13.3% of respondents fell into one or both groups – roughly one in eight people not appearing to take the survey seriously?
How does this story connect Conspiracy Theories with Survey Methodology over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theories-do-300-000-kiwis-really-believe-…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 9 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 8

help Insufficient Evidence 1

info

Claim 1: “Combined, 13.3% of respondents fell into one or both groups – roughly one in eight people not appearing to take the survey seriously.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The search results for '13' are dictionary definitions or local news stations and do not contain data regarding the New Zealand survey sample.

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web search NEUTRAL — Look up thirteen in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13

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web search NEUTRAL — Authorities announced the new cases as nations around the world repatriate passengers from a cruise ship hit by an outbreak and quarantine or isolate them. The development is the latest setback to...
https://www.13abc.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — WSET ABC 13 covers news, sports and weather in the Heart of Virginia: Lynchburg, Danville and Roanoke and nearby communities including Amherst, Lexington, Cave Spring, Blacksburg, Martinsville ...
https://wset.com/

info

Claim 2: “US psychiatrist Alexander Scott... coined the term “the Lizardman constant” to describe the idea that a certain amount of noise and trolling will always exist in surveys about unusual beliefs.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The search results provide general information about the US and news headlines, but none mention Alexander Scott or the 'Lizardman constant'.

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web search NEUTRAL — The three largest airlines in the world, by total number of passengers carried, are U.S.-based; American Airlines became the global leader after its 2013 merger with US Airways. [405]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States

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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · Reuters.com is your online source for the latest US news stories and current events, ensuring our readers up to date with any breaking news developments
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/

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web search NEUTRAL — Where are US hantavirus cruise passengers quarantining? Which hantavirus strain caused the cruise ship outbreak? Which US states are monitoring hantavirus cruise passengers?
https://www.usatoday.com/

info

Claim 3: “Another 7.2% said they thought the Canadian raccoon army theory was probably or definitely true.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The search results for '7' are mathematical and linguistic definitions of the number 7 and do not mention the Canadian raccoon army theory.

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web search NEUTRAL — Most devices use three line segments, but devices made by some Japanese companies such as Sharp and Casio, as well as in the Koreas and Taiwan, 7 is written with four line segments because in those co…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7

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web search NEUTRAL — On the seven-segment displays of pocket calculators and digital watches, 7 is the number with the most common glyph variation (0, 6 and 9 also have variant glyphs). Most calculators use three line seg…
https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/7_(number)

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web search NEUTRAL — Nov 23, 2021 · Learn to recognize and understand Number 7. Learn to count up to and down from seven. Created by teachers, learn how to show 7 in a ten frame. Learn to draw ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMvy57BGjqg

info

Claim 4: “Previous studies have found some people appear to believe conspiracy theories that directly contradict each other.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The search results provide dictionary definitions for the word 'previous' and do not provide any research or studies on contradictory conspiracy theories.

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web search NEUTRAL — May 10, 2015 · previous and prior imply existing or occurring earlier, but prior often adds an implication of greater importance.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/previous

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web search NEUTRAL — If someone has previous, they have been found guilty of one or more crimes in the past. Previous is short for "previous convictions ": He's got previous for stealing from his employer.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/previous

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web search NEUTRAL — A previous event or thing is one that happened or existed before the one that you are talking about. I'm a lot happier than I was in my previous job. He has no previous convictions.
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/previou…

help

Claim 5: “previous studies have found that people who endorse conspiracy theories are more likely to see the world as a dangerous and threatening place.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim.

info

Claim 6: “But once we removed the insincere responders, that figure dropped by more than half to 2.7%.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The source 'Conspiracy theories: do 300,000 Kiwis really believe Canada is...' discusses removing insincere respondents, but the specific drop to 2.7% is not corroborated by other independent sources in the provided evidence.

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web search NEUTRAL — In fact, removing insincere respondents made little difference to the broader relationships identified in earlier research. Nevertheless, we recommend that future surveys include ways to gauge whether…
https://www.nationaltribune.com.au/conspiracy-theories-do-30…

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web search NEUTRAL — U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday said the new coronavirus variant is quickly spreading, especially in London, but there’s currently no evidence ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkIHTYB-K0A

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web search NEUTRAL — Belief in the new theory has led some people in Britain to burn down 5G cell towers. In an effort to stop the spread of misinformation, YouTube is actively removing videos conspiratorially linking 5G …
https://coronavirus.medium.com/dismantling-the-5g-coronaviru…

info

Claim 7: “Four percent of Americans – roughly 12 million people – believe that “lizard people” secretly control the Earth. At least, that was the finding of an infamous 2013 public opinion survey.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided web search results only give general information about the year 2013 and do not mention the specific public opinion survey regarding 'lizard people'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 2013 (MMXIII) was a common year starting on Tuesday of the Gregorian calendar, the 2013th year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 13th year of the 3rd millennium and the 21s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013

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web search NEUTRAL — Learn about 760 famous, scandalous and important events that happened in 2013 or search by date or keyword.
https://www.onthisday.com/events/date/2013

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web search NEUTRAL — Jan 1, 2023 · 2013 was a year filled with incredible moments and remarkable achievements. From the release of Disney’s “Frozen” to Andy Murray’s historic Wimbledon victory, the world was captivated by…
https://www.thefactsite.com/year/2013/

info

Claim 8: “In our representative online sample of 810 New Zealanders, 8.3% of respondents confessed to being insincere in the survey.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One search result ('The role of insincere responding in research on conspiracy belie...') describes the methodology for classifying insincere respondents in a study, but the specific figure of 8.3% for 810 New Zealanders is not explicitly confirmed across multiple independent sources in the provided text.

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web search NEUTRAL — Respondents were classified as insincere if they endorsed the raccoon conspiracy as “probably true” or “definitely true,” if they admitted to having responded insincerely at any point, or both.
https://rr.peercommunityin.org/articles/rec?id=1201

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web search NEUTRAL — Critically, insincere respondents did not just answer at random, but rather they tended to select positive answer choices, introducing a small, systematic bias into estimates like presidential approva…
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363265574_Strategie…

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web search NEUTRAL — Learn about the representativeness of sample sizes.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/representative-sample.a…

info

Claim 9: “6.5% of the full sample endorsed the claim that governments around the world are covering up the fact that 5G mobile networks spread coronavirus.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The source 'Conspiracy theories: do 300,000 Kiwis really believe Canada is...' mentions that some participants agreed that 5G networks spread the virus, but the specific percentage of 6.5% is not corroborated by other independent sources in the provided evidence.

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web search NEUTRAL — In our survey, for example, some participants agreed both that COVID-19 is a myth and that governments are covering up the fact that 5G networks spread the virus. But nearly three-quarters of those re…
https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theories-do-300-000-k…

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web search NEUTRAL — 1. 5G Danger: Hijacking Your Sweat Duct Antennae. The 5G network uses and broadcasts frequencies which affect our sweat ducts, which act as antennae. In other words, our largest organ, the skin, can b…
https://www.wakingtimes.com/5g-danger-13-reasons-new-millime…

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web search NEUTRAL — The new coronavirus is also spreading in places without 5G networks. There are many parts of the UK that do not have 5G coverage yet, but are still affected by the virus (for example, Milton Keynes an…
https://fullfact.org/health/5G-not-accelerating-coronavirus/

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.