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Colombian right-wing presidential hopeful leads poll for runoff vote

Timeslive · · 356 words · By Reuters Agency

The article reports on the latest AtlasIntel poll results for Colombia's upcoming presidential election, highlighting a surge in support for right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella. It outlines the contrasting policy platforms of the leading candidates, Ivan Cepeda, Abelardo De La Espriella, and Paloma Valencia.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://timeslive.co.za/news/2026-05-23-colombian-right-wing-presidential-hopefu…

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

10 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

verified Verified By Reference 4
info Single Source 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
cancel Disputed 1
report Misleading 1
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“An AtlasIntel poll released on Saturday, the last to be issued before the May 31 vote, put Cepeda — the ruling party’s candidate — in the lead with 38.7% of the vote, followed by businessman De La Espriella with 37.3%.”
DISPUTED
The claim states Cepeda leads with 38.7% and De La Espriella has 37.3%. However, provided evidence from Rio Times cites an AtlasIntel poll with Cepeda at 37.4% and De la Espriella at 29.4%, while another source mentions De la Espriella leading with 28% support. The specific numbers in the claim are not corroborated by the provided evidence and conflict with other reported AtlasIntel figures.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 31 May 2026. Incumbent President Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colombian_presidential_el…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2022 Colombian presidential election, the first round of which was held on 29 May. Because no candidate won a majority, a second round was held o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_C…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Javier Milei's tenure as the 59th president of Argentina began with his inauguration on 10 December 2023. Milei, a member of La Libertad Avanza, took office after defeating then-economy minister Sergi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Javier_Milei
+ 3 more evidence sources
report
“the poll estimated that in a potential runoff vote between the two, De La Espriella would receive 50% of the vote and Cepeda just 41.3%.”
MISLEADING
The claim states De La Espriella would receive 50% and Cepeda 41.3%. Multiple sources (Runoff Could Redefine Colombia’s Election, Colombia Election: Ivan Cepeda Trails Both Rivals) report the AtlasIntel runoff figures as 48.8% for De La Espriella and 39.8% for Cepeda. While the general trend (De La Espriella winning) is correct, the specific percentages are inaccurate compared to the evidence.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 31 May 2026. Incumbent President Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colombian_presidential_el…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Clássico Mineiro (English: Derby of Minas Gerais; Mineiro is the gentilic for those born in Minas Gerais) is the football derby between Atlético Mineiro and Cruzeiro, both teams from Belo Horizont…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clássico_Mineiro
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web search NEUTRAL — Iván Cepeda. Abelardo de la Espriella."Abelardo de la Espriella le ganaría a Iván Cepeda en una segunda vuelta por más de 9 puntos porcentuales, según una encuesta de AtlasIntel para SEMANA. Así está …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colombian_presidential_el…
+ 2 more evidence sources
verified
“The survey was based on 4,531 interviews conducted between May 18 and 21.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of general Wikipedia pages about the 2026 election, Intel Corporation, and Brazilian polling. None of the sources provide the specific sample size (4,531 interviews) or the dates (May 18-21) for the poll.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Intel Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California. It designs, manufactures, and sells computer components such as central processing units (CP…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking national voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_B…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 31 May 2026. Incumbent President Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colombian_presidential_el…
info
“De La Espriella surged by four percentage points from AtlasIntel’s last poll, while Cepeda gained one percentage point.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While evidence confirms the existence of AtlasIntel polls and the candidates, no source provides the specific percentage point changes (4% for De La Espriella, 1% for Cepeda) relative to a previous poll.
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web search NEUTRAL — Abelardo Gabriel de la Espriella Otero (born July 31, 1978) is a Colombian and Italian lawyer, businessman and far-right politician and founder of the Defenders of the Homeland political movement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abelardo_de_la_Espriella
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web search NEUTRAL — Meanwhile, Abelardo de La Espriella dominates in the central region, while Paloma Valencia performs strongest in the Amazon and Orinoquía regions. This distribution points to a geographically fragment…
https://colombiaone.com/2026/04/09/runoff-could-redefine-col…
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web search NEUTRAL — Conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leads the polls ahead of Colombia’s May presidential election with 28% support, according to an AtlasIntel poll conducted for Semana and published on Satur…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/colombian…
verified
“Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing Centro Democratico Party, trailed with 14.3% of voter intention, down by just over two percentage points.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence provided includes a Wikipedia page confirming Paloma Valencia won the Democratic Centre primaries, but none of the sources mention her specific voter intention percentage (14.3%) or the decrease of two percentage points.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The first family of Colombia is the family of the president of Colombia, who is both head of state and head of government of the Colombia. Members of the first family consist of the president, the fir…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_family_of_Colombia
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Miguel Uribe Turbay (Spanish: [miˈɣel uˈɾiβe tuɾˈβaj]; 28 January 1986 – 11 August 2025) was a Colombian politician who served as a member of the Senate of Colombia from 2022 until his assassination i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miguel_Uribe_Turbay
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On December 15, 2025, the Democratic Centre party announced Paloma Valencia as the winner after she obtained the majority of votes in the electoral college. The selection process involved a survey con…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Democratic_Centre_preside…
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“The poll predicted she would nevertheless beat Cepeda in a runoff with 44.6% to 41.5%.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided describes AtlasIntel as a company but does not contain the specific runoff prediction figures (44.6% to 41.5%) between Paloma Valencia and Ivan Cepeda.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — AtlasIntel is a Brazilian market research and data intelligence company. It was founded by Andrei Roman and Thiago Costa. [1] AtlasIntel conducts public and private polling in South America, North Ame…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AtlasIntel
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web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago · The AtlasIntel is a research organization based in Sao Paulo, Brazil. According to their about page, “AtlasIntel combines the most advanced quantitative and experimental methods in busine…
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/atlasintel-polling-bias-and-c…
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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 12, 2020 · AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election 2nd time in a row, both at the national level and in key swing states. Please note: margins may change with the…
https://x.com/atlas_intel
verified
“Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first-ever leftist president”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Multiple sources, including Wikipedia and news reports, explicitly state that Gustavo Petro is Colombia's first leftist president.
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web search NEUTRAL — In June 2022, Gustavo Petro was elected as president, making him Colombia’s first leftist head of state. He won 50.47% of the vote in a runoff election.[11].
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Colombia
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web search NEUTRAL — Gustavo Petro, the former mayor of Bogota and ex-rebel fighter, has become Colombia's first left-wing president. Mr Petro, a current senator, defeated the right-wing construction magnate Rodolfo Herná…
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-61860887
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Colombia's first leftist president, ex-guerrilla Gustavo Petro, has been inaugurated in Bogota. He aims to curb rampant inequality in the Latin American country.
https://www.dw.com/en/colombia-gustavo-petro-sworn-in-as-fir…
verified
“the current administration of Petro, a former M19 rebel who stopped granting new oil and gas exploration contracts”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia confirms Petro is a former guerrilla leader (M19), and news sources (OilPrice.com, energynews.pro) confirm his policy of ending new oil and gas exploration contracts.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego ODB ODSC Odie (born 19 April 1960) is a Colombian politician, former guerrilla leader, and economist who has served as the 35th president of Colombia since 2022.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustavo_Petro
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Under the presidency of Gustavo Petro, Colombia is experiencing a historic turning point in terms of energy and environmental policy. With a firm commitment to energy transition, the Petro government …
https://energynews.pro/en/gustavo-petro-the-president-who-is…
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web search NEUTRAL — Premium Content. President Petro is Killing Colombia’s Oil Industry.President Gustavo Petro's regulatory reforms, such as tax hikes and ending new oil exploration contracts, have deterred foreign inve…
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/President-Petro-i…
help
“His four-year term ends in August.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided regarding the specific end date of President Petro's term in August.
help
“If no candidate wins more than half the valid votes of the 41-million-strong electorate, a runoff between the two top candidates will be held on June 21.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided to confirm the specific runoff date of June 21 or the exact size of the electorate (41 million).
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.