Carbon markets underestimate the risks U.S. forests face from climate change, researchers warn

Phys · 🇨🇳 public China · May 20, 2026 · 935 words · By University

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What to know about Carbon markets underestimate the risks U.S. forests face from climate change, researchers warn

Researchers from the University of Utah and international partners have published a study in Nature indicating that current carbon-credit buffer pools underestimate the risk of carbon loss in U.S. forests due to climate-driven disturbances. The study suggests that incorporating updated climate data can help improve the strategic placement and effectiveness of forest conservation projects.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 8

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center80%

Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

forests face from climate change, researchers warn Sadie Harley Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor The world's forests form a vast network of carbon reservoirs, keeping carbon sequestered from the atmosphere where its presence is disrupting…

Why it matters

Many corporate, national and state climate policies rely on forests' ability to store carbon—often tracked and funded through a system of "carbon credits" issued to polluting industries in exchange for protecting and restoring forests.

Common ground

But when trees die suddenly—from wildfire, drought or insect infestation—vast amounts of greenhouse gases are released, exacerbating ongoing climate change.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Carbon markets underestimate the risks U.S. forests face from climate change, researchers warn?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Under the team's analysis, the portion of the country projected to experience a reversal by wildfire expanded from 10% to 33%; from 19% to 21% for drought; and from 23% to 25% for insects?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-carbon-underestimate-forests-climate.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 8 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

verified Verified By Reference 5

info Single Source 3

verified

Claim 1: “Under the team's analysis, the portion of the country projected to experience a reversal by wildfire expanded from 10% to 33%; from 19% to 21% for drought; and from 23% to 25% for insects.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence consists of general tools (FireMap), calculators, and general state information. There are no statistics provided that match the specific percentage increases (10% to 33%, etc.) mentioned in the claim.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Georgia ( JOR-jə) is a state in the Southeastern, South Atlantic, and Deep South regions of the United States. It borders Tennessee to the northwest, North Carolina and South Carolina to the northeas…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_(U.S._state)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Open Championship, commonly known as the U.S. Open, is the annual open championship of golf in the United States. It is the third of the four men's major golf championships, and is o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Open_(golf)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States of America (USA), also known as the United States (U.S.) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It is a federal republic consisting of 50 states and a federal c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 2: “New research led by University of Utah scientists in collaboration with international experts sought to determine the likelihood forests will release their stored carbon over the next 100 years.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence includes general information about the University of Utah and general forest carbon research, but there is no specific mention of a study led by University of Utah scientists regarding the likelihood of forests releasing stored carbon over the next 100 years.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Southern Utah University (SUU) is a public university in Cedar City, Utah, United States. Founded in 1897 as a normal school, Southern Utah University now has over 1,800 graduates each year with bacca…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Utah_University

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The University of Utah (the U, U of U, or simply Utah) is a public research university in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. It was established in 1850 as the University of Deseret by the General …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Utah

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Utah State University (USU or Utah State) is a public land-grant university and research university in Logan, Utah, United States. Founded in 1888 under the Morrill Land-Grant Acts as Utah's only fede…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utah_State_University

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 3: “Chao Wu, Forest carbon protocols underestimate climate-driven carbon loss risks, Nature (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10571-y.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence does not contain any reference to a paper by Chao Wu in Nature (2026) or the specific DOI provided. The search results are unrelated to this specific publication.

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web search NEUTRAL — A 2014 study in the journal Psychological Science.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/095679761452458…

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web search NEUTRAL — Box 1 Fundamental Components of Forest Carbon Credit Protocols. Assuming forest projects are in regions yielding a net cooling effect (Hasler et al., 2024; Jackson et al., 2008), there are four tenets…
https://agupubs.pericles-prod.literatumonline.com/doi/full/1…

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web search NEUTRAL — Carbon residence time determines how long atmospheric carbon remains locked within vegetation before returning to the atmosphere. Shorter residence times weaken the buffering role forests play against…
https://energynews.biz/amazon-forest-carbon-storage-faces-fa…

verified

Claim 4: “Projects are typically planned on a 100-year horizon in the major California program that the researchers examined.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While evidence mentions California's carbon offset programs and issues with them (ProPublica, Grist), none of the provided sources confirm the specific '100-year horizon' planning detail mentioned in the claim.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The California is an EP released in 2000 by Dressy Bessy on Kindercore. The EP's sound has been described as 1960s-inspired girl group pop music. The Riverfront Times called the album "a textbook exam…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_California

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — California () is a state in the Western United States that lies on the Pacific Coast. It borders Oregon to the north, and Nevada and Arizona to the east; it also shares an international border with th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — California City is a city located in northern Antelope Valley in Kern County, California, United States. It is 100 miles (160 km) north of the city of Los Angeles, and the population was 14,973 at the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_City,_California

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 5: “Broad areas in Idaho, Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico show an 80% or more chance of experiencing such a carbon loss due to wildfire over the next century.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence mentions wildfires in Idaho, Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, but does not provide the specific statistical probability (80% or more chance) of carbon loss over the next century.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Interstate 15 (I-15) is a major Interstate Highway in the Western United States, running through Southern California and the Intermountain West. I-15 begins near the Mexican border in San Diego County…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_15

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — As of March 2025, the U.S. state of California is served by 41 area codes in the North American Numbering Plan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_area_codes

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This list provides an overview of United States ecoregions designated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC). The CEC was established …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ecoregions_in_the_Unit…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 6: “we found that wildfire is the largest climate-sensitive risk to durability for forest nature-based climate solutions”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions that forest-based carbon sequestration suffers from impermanence risks including wildfires, but it does not explicitly state that wildfire is the 'largest climate-sensitive risk' as a finding of a specific study.

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web search NEUTRAL — Additionally, some projects, like forest-based carbon sequestration, suffer from impermanence risks. Forests can be destroyed by logging, wildfires, or natural disasters, releasing stored carbon back …
https://matadornetwork.com/read/carbon-removal-air-travel-so…

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web search NEUTRAL — While forests and forest soil often get attention for their carbon sequestration, Atwood said wetlands are even more important, storing 30 to 50 times faster and at a higher rate than other systems. “…
https://grist.org/solutions/bogs-hold-a-key-to-climate-solut…

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web search NEUTRAL — Establishing forests can capture carbon and boost biodiversity — but some biomes are a better bet than others, a recent study finds. Forest restoration has emerged as a top nature-based solution to mi…
https://news.mongabay.com/2026/03/study-maps-tree-planting-r…

info

Claim 7: “The research team, which included scientists from eight other universities and organizations, used forest plot data, satellite observations and machine learning to predict where forest losses are most likely to occur.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions that scientists use forest plot data, satellite observations, and advanced modeling to quantify carbon uptake, which is similar to the claim, but it does not confirm the specific research team or the use of machine learning for predicting loss locations as described in the claim.

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web search NEUTRAL — At Howland Research Forest, located about 30 miles north of Orono, Maine, in the towns of Edinburg and Howland, 98-foot towers rise above the spruce and hemlock canopy. They are topped by instruments …
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-scientists-forest-uproot-peopl…

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web search NEUTRAL — Scientists use forest plot data, satellite observations, and advanced modeling to quantify carbon uptake.
https://www.waforestry.org/forests-as-carbon-sinks-in-climat…

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web search NEUTRAL — Learn Machine Learning in a way that is accessible to absolute beginners. You will learn the basics of Machine Learning and how to use TensorFlow to implemen...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_LwzRVP7bg

verified

Claim 8: “the study found these buffer pools are currently far too small for U.S. forests. On average, they would need to be around six times larger to fully cover expected losses over a century for the projects that have been set up so far.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim is completely irrelevant, discussing electric current, banking apps, and the US Senate, with no mention of carbon credit buffer pools or forest losses.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Billboard Hot 100 is a singles chart published by Billboard that measures the most popular singles in the United States, based on sales (physical and digital), online streaming, and radio airplay.…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Billboard_Hot_100_char…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Senate consists of 100 members, two from each of the 50 states. This list includes all senators serving in the 119th United States Congress. As of March 2026, there are 53 Republican…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States one-hundred-dollar bill (US$100) is a denomination of United States currency. The first United States Note with this value was issued in 1862 and the Federal Reserve Note version was…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_one-hundred-doll…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.