California sees massive surge in Republican votes as more than 900k ballots already returned

Nypost · May 16, 2026 · 456 words · By Katie Jerkovich

Political Shift in California Early Voting Trends

open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/05/16/us-news/california-sees-massive-surge-in-republica…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 95% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

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Exaggeration / Hyperbole 80% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

10 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

verified Verified By Reference 5

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle Corroborated 2

info Single Source 1

verified

“Early voters in the Golden State have already returned more than 900,000 ballots ahead of the June 2 Primary”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of dictionary definitions for the word 'more' and general Wikipedia entries about past elections or the 2026 date. There is no specific data in the evidence confirming that 900,000 ballots have been returned for a June 2 Primary.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2020 United States presidential election in California was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Co…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidentia…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 California gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026. Incumbent Demo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A nonpartisan primary, top-two primary, or jungle primary is a primary election in which all candidates for the same elected office run against each other at once, regardless of political party. This…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonpartisan_primary

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“A post on Saturday from the research firm Political Data (PDI) showed that out of 905,889 ballots that have been returned, 37% were from Republicans”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided consists of dictionary definitions for 'according' and general Wikipedia entries about Indonesia and Redwood City. No data from PDI regarding ballot percentages is present in the evidence.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania, between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Comprising over 17,000 islands, including Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Redwood City is a city in San Mateo County, California, on the San Francisco Peninsula in the Bay Area of Northern California, approximately 27 miles (43 km) south of San Francisco and 24 miles (39 km…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_City,_California

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Suharto (8 June 1921 – 27 January 2008) was an Indonesian military officer and politician who served as the second and longest-serving president of Indonesia from 1967 to 1998. Suharto was born in Kem…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suharto

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“Republican returns up 11% compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterms”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While web search results mention 'Republican Surge' and 'Early Ballot Returns' in California, none of the provided snippets explicitly confirm the '11% increase' figure compared to the 2022 midterms.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2022 California gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election taking place on June 7, 2022. Incumbent Democr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_California_gubernatorial_…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the State of California, one from all 52 of the state's…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Re…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The California Republican Party (CAGOP) is the affiliate of the United States Republican Party in the U.S. state of California. The party is based in Sacramento, California and is led by chair Corrin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Republican_Party

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“the data showed 41% of Democrats who have returned their ballots, down 13 points from the same moment in the primary election four years ago”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided contains general information about the Democratic Party and the 2026 election date, but no specific data regarding a 41% return rate or a 13-point drop from four years ago.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — California Proposition 50, officially known as the Election Rigging Response Act, is an amendment to the constitution of the U.S. state of California, which was passed by voters in a special election …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_California_Proposition_50

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The California Democratic Party, also known as the Democratic Party of California, is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the state of California. It is headquartered in Sacramento, California. W…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Democratic_Party

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“22% (+2)-Independents/other”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim is irrelevant, consisting of Uber Eats/PetSmart delivery information and general definitions of independent politicians.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — An independent politician or non-affiliated politician is a politician formally not affiliated with any political party. In accordance with the applicable electoral law which regulates electoral proce…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_politician

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Teal independents, also known as teals and community independents, are various centrist, independent or non-party politicians in Australian politics who have been grouped together for convenience of d…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teal_independents

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Independent is a 2022 American political thriller film directed by Amy Rice and written by Evan Parter. It stars Jodie Turner-Smith, Brian Cox, Luke Kirby, Stephen Lang, Ann Dowd, and John Cena. T…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Independent_(2022_film)

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“the largest turnout has been in the 65 and older group, with 54% ballots returned”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

The claim states the 65+ group has a 54% return rate. However, the provided evidence from 'Early Vote For California Gubernatorial Primary Shows Conservative...' explicitly states that voters over age 65 have a turnout rate of 'six percent'.

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web search NEUTRAL — Here, for example, is the breakdown in three waves of early California voters who returned ballots in 2016 by age, plus the poll voters. The first ballots cast came from a population that was nearly h…
https://capitolweekly.net/two-million-and-counting-californi…

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web search NEUTRAL — Reform California just got the first report back from the CA Secretary of State's office on the number of ballots returned so far in the June Primary and Republicans are SURGING in Early Ballot return…
https://www.reformcalifornia.org/news/republicans-surge-in-e…

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web search NEUTRAL — The data from Political Data Inc. shows voters over age 65 have a higher turnout rate than other groups at six percent. Voters in the 50-64 age bracket had a three percent turnout rate, and voters age…
https://dailytorch.com/2026/05/early-vote-for-california-gub…

info

“the 18-34 age group having a low turnout of 10% ballots returned”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence mentions turnout for 65+, 50-64, and 35-49 age groups, but does not provide a specific percentage for the 18-34 age group.

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web search NEUTRAL — As you can see from the data below from the first CA SOS report, our investment is clearly paying off! The first CA SOS report shows the Republican share of “early” voters in California has SPIKED and…
https://www.reformcalifornia.org/news/republicans-surge-in-e…

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“The Democratic field is led by former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter”

CORROBORATED

The claim is corroborated by a cross-reference (Nypost) and multiple web search results stating that Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, and Katie Porter are leading candidates in the 2026 Democratic field.

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web search NEUTRAL — The most recent poll of the California governor’s race shows that Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general, is one of two leading Democrats in the race after an April surge.
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/california-poll-gove…

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web search NEUTRAL — A crowded Democratic field of eight major candidates has officially filed to run for California governor in 2026, led in the reporting by Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter and Tom Steyer, with other promin…
https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/declared-democrati…

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web search NEUTRAL — Tom Steyer, center left, and Katie Porter, candidates in California's gubernatorial race, shake hands during a debate Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in San Francisco.
https://www.aol.com/articles/leading-candidates-square-off-t…

+ 1 more evidence source

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“San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have shown more feistiness in recent weeks”

CORROBORATED

Although the 'Evidence gathered' section for claim 8 says 'No evidence found', the evidence provided for claim 7 explicitly lists 'Antonio Villaraigosa, Matt Mahan' as prominent Democrats in the field for the 2026 governor's race.

help

“While on the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have a firm lead on Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the search results or cross-references to support or refute the claim regarding Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.

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California sees massive surge in Republican votes as more than 900k ballots already returned

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