Bruce Blakeman could unseat Hochul and turn New York red, surprising poll reveals

Nypost · Aug 12, 2026 · 609 words · By Carl Campanile

Political Competitiveness Polling Analysis

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What to know about Political Competitiveness

Bruce Blakeman could unseat Hochul and turn New York red, surprising poll reveals See more of our coverage in your search results.

Claims checked 19

Techniques found 2

Topics 2

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center0%

Right100%

1 source compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Bruce Blakeman could unseat Hochul and turn New York red, surprising poll reveals See more of our coverage in your search results.

Why it matters

Add The New York Post on Google New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is closer to unseating Gov.

Common ground

Kathy Hochul and turning the Empire State red than Lee Zeldin was in the home stretch of last election — when the GOP rival mounted a nail-bitingly close challenge, a stunning new poll reveals.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Competitiveness story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that roughly half of likely voters — 51% — said Hochul would do a better job of increasing affordable housing, compared to roughly a third — 35% — who believed Blakeman would?
How does this story connect Political Competitiveness with Polling Analysis over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/08/12/us-news/hochuls-lead-over-blakeman-dramatically-sh…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 90% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 80% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 19 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 9

check_circle Corroborated 4

verified Verified By Reference 3

info Single Source 2

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “roughly half of likely voters — 51% — said Hochul would do a better job of increasing affordable housing, compared to roughly a third — 35% — who believed Blakeman would.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 2: “Hochul only won the election against Zeldin by a narrow six points — 53% to 47%.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and other sources confirm Hochul defeated Lee Zeldin in the 2022 gubernatorial election, describing it as the narrowest in state history, though the specific 53% to 47% split is not explicitly detailed in the provided snippets, the outcome is verified.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Lee Michael Zeldin (born January 30, 1980) is an American politician and lawyer serving as the 17th administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) since January 2025. Previously, he served…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Zeldin

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2022 New York gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022 to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New York. In August 2021, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul ascended to the governorship a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_New_York_gubernatorial_el…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kathleen Mary Hochul ( HOH-kəl; née Courtney; born August 27, 1958) is an American politician and lawyer who has served since 2021 as the 57th governor of New York. A member of the Democratic Party, s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathy_Hochul

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 3: “Voters are split on who will keep New Yorkers safe, with 47% believing Hochul would do a better job with public safety and 44% believing Blakeman would.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 4: “Siena College interviewed 811 likely voters from Aug. 3-6. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 5: “far-left socialist Zohran Mamdani took away the mayoral election in 2025.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute the claim that Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral election in 2025.

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Claim 6: “Blakeman trails Hochul by 60 points among black voters.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources confirm that Bruce Blakeman trails Hochul by 60 points among Black voters.

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web search NEUTRAL — Among Black voters, Blakeman trails by a staggering 60 points. And in deep-blue New York City, Hochul crushes Blakeman 64% to 19%. But outside the five boroughs, the picture changes dramatically.
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/general/2584845/stunnin…

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web search NEUTRAL — Blakeman trails Hochul by 60 points among black voters.Hochul leads Blakeman by just 10 points — 49% to 39% — among likely voters, according to a Siena College survey conducted in early August. Michae…
https://nypost.com/2026/08/12/us-news/hochuls-lead-over-blak…

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web search NEUTRAL — Kathy Hochul by 10 percentage points in a Siena University poll of likely voters released on Wednesday.Credit...Johnny Milano for The New York Times.(Ms. Hochul would go on to defeat Mr. Zeldin, who n…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/nyregion/bruce-blakeman-g…

verified

Claim 7: “Voters will cast their ballots for governor on November 3.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and election prediction markets explicitly state the 2026 New York gubernatorial general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The mayor of New York City, officially mayor of the City of New York, is head of the executive branch of the government of New York City and the chief executive of New York City. The mayor's office ad…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — New York, often called New York City (NYC), is the most populous city in the United States. It is located at the southern tip of New York State on New York Harbor, one of the world's largest natural …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The New York Times (NYT) is a newspaper based in Manhattan, New York City. The New York Times covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces and reviews. One of the lo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 8: “In August 2022, Hochul... led the then-Long Island congressman and current US Environmental Protection Agency Administrator by 14 points among likely voters — 53% to 39%.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While evidence confirms Lee Zeldin is the current EPA Administrator and ran against Hochul in 2022, the provided evidence does not contain the specific August 2022 polling numbers (53% to 39%) mentioned in the claim.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 New York gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of New York. Incumbent Democratic governor Kathy Hochul is running for re-election to a s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_York_gubernatorial_el…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — William Joseph Hochul Jr. ( HOH-kəl; born March 28, 1959) is an American attorney who served as United States attorney for the Western District of New York from 2010 to 2016. Hochul has been the first…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Hochul_Jr.

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “The Democrat incumbent leads Blakeman by just 10 points — 49% to 39% — among likely voters, according to a Siena College survey conducted in early August.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web search results confirm a Siena College survey of likely voters showed Hochul leading Blakeman 49% to 39%.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Colu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 10: “Blakeman, meanwhile, led his rival by 8 points in the suburbs — 49% to 41%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: “the support of 42% of Jewish voters... Blakeman is Jewish.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 12: “four-term Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez by 23 points — 55% to 32%.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant results about 'Talking Tom' and contains no information regarding Tom DiNapoli or Joseph Hernandez.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Talking Tom is the cat making every day a fun adventure. Players adopt this virtual pet, keep him happy and help him explore his world. - Talking Tom can really talk - Fashion and furniture...
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.outfit7.my…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — It’s Talking Tom, the virtual pet cat who loves to chat. Talking Tom is the cat making every day a fun adventure. Players adopt this virtual pet, keep him happy and help him explore his world.
https://talkingtomandfriends.com/apps/my-talking-tom

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web search NEUTRAL — The Smurfs join Talking Tom and his friends to create a playful experience filled with teamwork, rescue missions, and imaginative play.
https://www.youtube.com/TalkingTom

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Claim 13: “Another survey taken by a conservative-leaning group earlier last month showed Hochul leading Blakeman by just 6 points — 47% to 41% — among likely voters.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 14: “A poll conducted for the pro-Blakeman “Strong and Safe” Super PAC last month had the Republican trailing his rival by just 4 points — 47% to 43%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 15: “The incumbent also holds a significant 45-point lead in deep-blue New York City — 64% to 19%”

CORROBORATED

Although the specific 'Claim 8' evidence section was empty, the evidence provided for Claim 0 and Claim 7 explicitly mentions that 'Hochul holds a commanding 64-19% lead in New York City'.

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Claim 16: “Those respondents say she will do a slightly better job making prices more affordable for average New Yorkers — 48% to 41%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 17: “She holds a 19-point lead over Blakeman among women — 56% to 37%”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant results about Kathy Griffin and the name 'Kathy', with no mention of polling data regarding women voters in the Hochul/Blakeman race.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In 2007 and 2008, Griffin won Primetime Emmy Awards for her reality show Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List. She has also appeared in supporting roles in films. Griffin was born in Oak Park, Illinoi…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathy_Griffin

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Kathy is a feminine given name. It is often short for other names. [1] Kathy may refer to: This page or section lists people that share the same given name. If an internal link led you here, you may w…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathy

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web search NEUTRAL — In addition to celebrities, Kathy will again be joined by her often intoxicated mother, Maggie, and always adorable assistant, Tiffany, as well as a panel of friends, co-workers, and normal...
https://www.bravotv.com/kathy

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Claim 18: “the two split the upstate vote, according to the survey.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 19: “Two-term Democratic state Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger, former federal prosecutor Saritha Komatireddy, by 18 points — 54% to 36% — among likely voters.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources, including a Siena poll, confirm Letitia James leads Saritha Komatireddy by 18 points (54% to 36%) among likely voters.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 United States attorney general elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the attorneys general of thirty U.S. states, two territories, and one federal district. The previous electi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_attorney_ge…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 New York Attorney General election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the Attorney General of New York. Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Letitia James has announced…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_York_Attorney_General…

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web search NEUTRAL — James Holds 18-Point, 54-36%, Lead Over Komatireddy in Race for AG. James has a 52-38% favorability rating, compared to 17-12% for Komatireddy.
https://sri.siena.edu/2026/08/12/siena-poll-of-likely-new-yo…

+ 2 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.