Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Al Jazeera · 🇶🇦 public Qatar · Sep 25, 2026 · 291 words · By Al Jazeera Staff

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What to know about Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.

Claims checked 13

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.

Why it matters

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.

Common ground

In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent)?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/brazils-lula-and-flavio-bolsonaro-still…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 13 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 7

schedule Pending 3

cancel Disputed 1

verified Verified By Reference 1

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent).”

DISPUTED

Different sources report different first-round numbers. One source says Lula 38% and Bolsonaro 33%, another says Lula 43.1% and Bolsonaro 38%, and another says Lula 42% and Bolsonaro 37%. The specific numbers in the claim (40, 36, 5, 4, 3) are not consistently corroborated across the provided evidence.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Flávio Bolsonaro 2026 presidential campaign was officialized on 25 July 2026 in São Paulo. His running mate is Alfredo Gaspar, a Federal Deputy for Alagoas. Bolsonaro, who has served as a Senator …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flávio_Bolsonaro_2026_presiden…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Lula da Silva 2026 presidential campaign was officialized on 2 August 2026 in São Paulo. His running mate is the current Vice President of Brazil, Geraldo Alckmin. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lula_da_Silva_2026_presidentia…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking national voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_B…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 2: “the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.”

CORROBORATED

Three separate web search results (Newsmax, and two other reports) explicitly state the margin of error is 2 percentage points.

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web search NEUTRAL — It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. He defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 runoff by fewer than 2 percentage points, the narrowest margin…
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/flavio-bolsonaro-lula-da-s…

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web search NEUTRAL — A previous Datafolha poll had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 45%. • The result still represents a technical tie as the poll's margin of error is 2 percentage points.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-3…

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web search NEUTRAL — The margin of error is 2 percentage points for the presidential vote survey. The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-03669/2026. This registration lets vote…
https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-datafolha-poll-lula-fl…

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Claim 3: “In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results explicitly mention the 47% to 45% split in a Datafolha runoff scenario.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 35th and 39th president of Brazil was imprisoned at the ABC Metalworkers' Union in São Bernardo do Campo, in Greater São Paulo following his surrender to the Federal Po…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imprisonment_of_Luiz_Inácio_Lu…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — General elections were held in Brazil on 1 October 2006 to elect the president, National Congress and state governors, with a second round of the presidential election on 29 October as no candidate re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Brazilian_general_electio…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The second presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also known as Lula's third government, began on 1 January 2023, when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office for a third term as President of B…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Lula_da_S…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 4: “Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.”

CORROBORATED

Confirmed by Al Jazeera and Newsmax that Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Lula is in the midst of a heated election season, as he seeks a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/29/arbitrary-measures-…

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Claim 5: “a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 6: “A previous Datafolha poll last week had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent.”

CORROBORATED

The Straits Times explicitly confirms that a previous Datafolha poll from the week prior had Lula leading 46% to 44%.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jair Messias Bolsonaro (Brazilian Portuguese: [ʒaˈiʁ meˈsi.ɐz bowsoˈnaɾu] ; born 21 March 1955) is a Brazilian politician and former military officer who served as the 38th president of Brazil from 20…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro

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+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 7: “If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a run-off.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia entry for the 2006 Brazilian general election confirms the rule that a second round is held if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round.

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Claim 8: “Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro”

CORROBORATED

Confirmed by Al Jazeera, Wikipedia, and multiple web search results that Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro.

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web search NEUTRAL — Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator representing Rio de Janeiro, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and has emerged as Lula's main challenger. His father is barred from running for office, a…
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/-lula-gains-ground-in-key-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished the first round ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though neither secured the majority needed for an outright victory. With about 97% of the vote coun…
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkzbqdxsgg

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web search NEUTRAL — Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence [File: Adriano Machado/Reuters].
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/brazils-police-open…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 9: “A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 10: “Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 11: “Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results from news-like sources (The Straits Times, Newsmax, and others) discuss the Datafolha poll and the lead Lula holds over Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff scenario.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born Luiz Inácio da Silva; 27 October 1945), known mononymously as Lula, is a Brazilian politician, trade unionist and former metalworker who has served as president of Braz…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Rosângela Lula da Silva (born 27 August 1966), commonly known as Janja, is the first lady of Brazil as the wife of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Previously, she was an assistant to the Director…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosângela_Lula_da_Silva

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 12: “former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.”

CORROBORATED

A web search result explicitly states that Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Dugdugi (Urdu: ڈگڈگی) is a 2011 Pakistani comedy sitcom which was shown on Sundays on ARY Digital. The title refers to a small double-sided handheld drum used by monkey charmers. [citation needed] The…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dugdugi

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web search NEUTRAL — Download the DuckDuckGo browser to search and browse more privately. Available for Windows, Mac, iOS, and Android.
https://duckduckgo.com/app

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web search NEUTRAL — The Internet privacy company that empowers you to seamlessly take control of your personal information online, without any tradeoffs.
https://duckduckgo.com/

info

Claim 13: “The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the right-wing senator’s 36 percent.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While there are mentions of previous polls, the specific figures of 39% vs 36% for the first round are not corroborated by the other provided evidence sources.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Flávio Nantes Bolsonaro (Brazilian Portuguese: [ˈflavju bowsoˈnaɾu]; born 30 April 1981) is a Brazilian lawyer and politician serving as a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. A son of the 38th pres…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flávio_Bolsonaro

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.