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Bond market believes Fed behind the curve on inflation as Warsh takes over

Cnbc · · 315 words · By Alex Harring
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/bond-market-fed-inflation-warsh-powell.html

fact_checkFact-Check Results

7 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

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verified Verified 1
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“The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is above the federal funds rate, or FFR.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence contains general information about Treasury securities and a specific yield for a 10-year note, but it does not provide the current 2-year Treasury yield or the current Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to allow for a comparison.
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web search NEUTRAL — Get updated data about US Treasuries. Find information on government bonds yields, muni bonds and interest rates in the USA.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bon…
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web search NEUTRAL — The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.36% on May 8, 2026, marking a 0.03 percentage points decrease from the previous session.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-y…
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web search NEUTRAL — Effective Federal Funds Rate. CPI inflation year/year.United States Treasury securities, also called Treasuries or Treasurys, are government debt instruments issued by the United States Department of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_securit…
verified
“inflation running above its annual target of 2%”
VERIFIED
Multiple sources confirm that the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate is 2% and that current inflation remains above this target.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Federal Reserve has a target annual inflation rate of 2%.
https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832
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web search NEUTRAL — While there are signs that inflation may ease in the coming months, it will likely remain far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target well into next year or even into 2024.
https://www.thehindu.com/business/us-inflation-slows-from-a-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Upside risks to inflation have diminished.” Yet dismissing or even downplaying inflation while it is still above the Fed’s target of 2% poses big risks for the White House and the Federal Reserve.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91420903/trump-declares-inflatio…
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“April's consumer price index showed an annual increase of 3.8%, the highest rate since 2023.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (CBS News, Flipboard, and other web results) explicitly state that the annual CPI increase in April was 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a family of various consumer price indices published monthly by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The most commonly used indices are t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index_in_the_Un…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. It is calculated as the weighted average price of a m…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This page lists details of the consumer price index by country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index_by_countr…
+ 4 more evidence sources
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“Wholesale inflation jumped 6% over 12 months in April, its fastest clip since 2022.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (CNN via Google News and another web search result) confirm that wholesale inflation jumped 6% in April, marking the fastest increase since 2022.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), formerly United Shore Financial Services, is an American wholesale mortgage lender headquartered in Pontiac, Michigan. UWM underwrites loans for independent brokers, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Wholesale_Mortgage
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., commonly referred as BJ's, is an American regional membership-only warehouse club chain based in Marlborough, Massachusetts, operating in the eastern United States …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BJ's_Wholesale_Club
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Costco Wholesale Corporation, trading as Costco, is an American multinational corporation that operates a chain of membership-only big-box warehouse club retail stores. As of 2021, Costco is the third…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent news organizations (NY Post and South China Morning Post) report that Kevin Warsh is Donald Trump's pick to succeed Jerome Powell.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Kevin Warsh is Trump’s pick to succeed him when his term ends in May
https://nypost.com/2026/05/05/business/sen-tim-scott-praying…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to succeed Powell
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/335291…
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“Warsh, who was confirmed by the Senate this week”
CORROBORATED
Three independent high-authority sources (Bloomberg, The Guardian, and The New York Times) confirm that the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair this week.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Tuesday, with the chamber expected to confirm him separately as chair later this week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/warsh-con…
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web search NEUTRAL — The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve, one of the most powerful roles in the federal government that holds enormous sway over the economy. The 54-45 Senate vote on Wednes…
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/13/kevin-warsh…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Senate on Wednesday confirmed Kevin M. Warsh to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve, marking the start of a new era for an institution that President Trump has repeatedly attacked for not…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/us/politics/kevin-warsh-f…
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“Fed funds futures traders are pricing in no rate cuts for the remainder of the year, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided describes what the CME FedWatch tool is and how it works, but it does not provide the actual current data or pricing regarding rate cuts for the remainder of the year.
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web search NEUTRAL — Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on …
https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
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web search NEUTRAL — Follow @Interest_Rates on 𝕏. *Disclaimer: The data and output from this tool does not constitute investment advice and is not a personal recommendation from CME Group. Nothing contained herein constit…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch…
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web search NEUTRAL — The CME FedWatch Tool is a free, publicly accessible tool published by the CME Group that translates real-time fed funds futures prices into implied probabilities of Federal Reserve interest-rate deci…
https://damnpropfirms.com/glossary/fedwatch-tool/
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.