Birds of prey in South Africa are in trouble – a study analyses data from 16 years of road counts

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 08, 2026 · 1015 words · By Arjun Amar; Megan Murgatroyd; Santiago Zuluaga Castañeda

Conservation Urgency Environmental Impact of Human Growth Scientific Monitoring Methodology

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Daily briefing

What to know about Conservation Urgency

The article discusses a study on raptor population trends in South Africa based on 16 years of road count data. It reports significant declines in 50% of the observed species and emphasizes the need for improved monitoring and conservation efforts to mitigate human-induced threats.

Propaganda risk 20%

Claims checked 17

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Birds of prey and vultures (raptors) play a vital role in ecosystems, both as top predators and key scavengers.

Why it matters

However, compared to many other bird species, raptor populations are declining faster.

Common ground

This is because they need large areas to live in, have low population densities, and reproduce slowly.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Fear: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Conservation Urgency story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that our findings of large declines for secretarybird and lesser kestrel were very similar to those reported in Kenya and Botswana?
How does this story connect Conservation Urgency with Environmental Impact of Human Growth over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/birds-of-prey-in-south-africa-are-in-trouble-a-study…

analyticsAnalysis

20%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Appeal to Fear 60% confidence

Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to fear helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 17 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 7

info Single Source 5

check_circle Corroborated 4

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “our findings of large declines for secretarybird and lesser kestrel were very similar to those reported in Kenya and Botswana.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 2: “Species with consistent trends between the methods included amur falcon and lesser kestrel – both showing declines – and greater kestrel and white-backed vulture – both showing increases.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “projected human population growth in Africa (79%)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “We had enough data to examine trends for 18 raptors and eight other large bird species over this period.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While the evidence mentions the study and the 16-year period, the specific count of '18 raptors and eight other large bird species' is not explicitly confirmed in the provided snippets, although the total of 26 species is mentioned in other claims.

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web search NEUTRAL — Trends in raptor populations. According to our results, 42% of the assessed species declined by more than 50% in the last 16 years. Notable declines included all of the three migratory species assesse…
https://theconversation.com/birds-of-prey-in-south-africa-ar…

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web search NEUTRAL — The large and sensitive raptor species comprise a third group that has exhibited a population decrease during the past 25 years. The single pairs of the white-tailed and imperial eagles became extinct…
https://www.academia.edu/56810149/Diurnal_birds_of_prey_in_t…

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web search NEUTRAL — Notes on seventy-nine species of birds observed in the neighborhood of Camp Harney, Oregon, compiled from the correspondence of Capt. Charles Bendire, 1st Cavalry U.S.A. Bos.
https://archive.org/stream/Raptorresearch18Rapt/Raptorresear…

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Claim 5: “Ronelle Visagie... drove nearly 400,000 km... across the central area of South Africa... between 2009 and 2025, while she worked for the Birds of Prey Programme of the Endangered Wildlife Trust.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources confirm Ronelle Visagie's role with the Endangered Wildlife Trust and the scale of the road surveys (nearly 400,000 km) in South Africa.

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web search NEUTRAL — ...Ronelle Visagie, who drove nearly 400,000 km (the distance from Earth to the moon) across the central area of South Africa (see map) between 2009 and 2025, while she worked for the Birds of Prey Pr…
https://theconversation.com/birds-of-prey-in-south-africa-ar…

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web search NEUTRAL — A 16-year study of nearly 400,000 km of road surveys reveals widespread declines in South Africa’s raptors and other large birds, with half of the species showing significant population losses.
https://sciencesources.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1119998

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web search NEUTRAL — Field biologist Ronelle Visagie of the Endangered Wildlife Trust, responsible for much of the field data collection, reflected on the painstaking nature of such work. The sustained effort involved ext…
https://bioengineer.org/long-term-road-surveys-uncover-exten…

info

Claim 6: “raptor populations are declining faster [compared to many other bird species]”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is explicitly stated in one web search result ('Birds of prey in South Africa are in trouble'), but other search results discuss general raptor threats or different species without confirming the specific comparative rate of decline against 'many other bird species'.

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web search NEUTRAL — Both are domesticated forms of the rock dove, and are a major prey species for peregrine populations. Due to their greater abundance in cities than most other birds, feral pigeons support many peregri…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_falcon

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web search NEUTRAL — However, compared to many other bird species, raptor populations are declining faster.Trends in raptor populations. According to our results, 42% of the assessed species declined by more than 50% in t…
https://www.modernghana.com/news/1491706/birds-of-prey-in-so…

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web search NEUTRAL — Many other raptors are vulnerable to electrocution or collision with powerlines. But as with most bird species, unsustainable agriculture and logging are the primary threats.
https://www.spnl.org/new-report-over-half-the-worlds-raptors…

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Claim 7: “the white-backed vulture is a critically endangered species”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 8: “similar population changes for secretarybird were detected... in the Nama Karoo... (a 61% decline between the late 1980s and early 2010s).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 9: “Species with inconsistent trends... included Ludwig’s bustard, blue crane, secretarybird, black-winged kite, and southern pale chanting goshawk.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “populations of white-necked raven, greater kestrels, and white-backed vulture increased.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 11: “Many countries in the global south host important populations of raptors but lack effective monitoring programmes.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is explicitly stated in the source 'Birds of prey in South Africa are in trouble'. Other sources discuss the Global South generally but do not specifically mention raptor monitoring programmes.

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web search NEUTRAL — The global south remains very poor relative to the north, and many countries continue to lack critical infrastructure and social services in health and education. Also, a great deal of political insta…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_North_and_Global_South

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web search NEUTRAL — Many countries in the global south host important populations of raptors but lack effective monitoring programmes. Africa is an important continent for raptor diversity. Several studies across Africa …
https://theconversation.com/birds-of-prey-in-south-africa-ar…

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web search NEUTRAL — List of Global South countries with challenges in defining the Global South and explanation of what it is.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/global-so…

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Claim 12: “These road counts revealed that 50% of the species (13 out of 26) declined significantly”

CORROBORATED

Two independent sources (the SSRN paper and the 'Birds of prey in South Africa' article) explicitly state that 50% of the species (13 out of 26) declined significantly.

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web search NEUTRAL — The Great Seal of the United States features several groupings which consist of 13 things of the same type e.g. 13 olive leaves, 13 stars, 13 arrows. The number 13 is a recurring motif in American her…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13_(number)

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web search NEUTRAL — Welcome to our About The Number 13 page, where we explore the fascinating and mysterious world surrounding this often misunderstood integer. Delve into the history, superstitions, cultural significanc…
https://numeraly.com/about-the-number-13/

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web search NEUTRAL — Sep 13, 2013 · But what’s so unlucky about the number 13, and how did this numerical superstition get started?
https://www.history.com/articles/whats-so-unlucky-about-the-…

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Claim 13: “only three species (12%) showed significant increases.”

CORROBORATED

Two independent sources explicitly state that only three species (12%) showed significant increases.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa (RSA), is the southernmost country in Africa. Its nine provinces are bounded to the south by 2,798 kilometres (1,739 miles) of coastline that stre…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The South Africa national soccer team represents South Africa in men's international football and is run by the South African Football Association, the governing body for football in South Africa. Nic…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_national_soccer_t…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — White South Africans are South Africans of European descent. In linguistic, cultural, and historical terms, they are generally divided into the Afrikaans-speaking descendants of the Dutch East India C…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_South_Africans

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 14: “Notable declines included all of the three migratory species assessed (lesser kestrel, amur falcon and steppe buzzard).”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim regarding the lesser kestrel, amur falcon, and steppe buzzard is mentioned in the 'Birds of prey in South Africa' source, but no other independent sources were found to corroborate this specific list of declines.

info

Claim 15: “42% of the assessed species declined by more than 50% in the last 16 years.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific figure of 42% declining by more than 50% in the last 16 years is found in the 'Birds of prey in South Africa' source. Another source mentions 42% decline in Costa Rica, which is a different study and not corroboration.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — According to our results, 42% of the assessed species declined by more than 50% in the last 16 years. Notable declines included all of the three migratory species assessed (lesser kestrel, amur ...
https://theconversation.com/birds-of-prey-in-south-africa-ar…

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web search NEUTRAL — A twelve-year study in Costa Rica's human-dominated agricultural countryside found that 42% of bird populations declined over the study period, with most of these declines occurring in more specialise…
https://datazone.birdlife.org/articles/birds-are-in-decline-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Given the degree of integration of bird indicators into national and international policies (Gregory and van Strien, 2010), the present study represents a systematic review of recent scientific litera…
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2…

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Claim 16: “We also found declines of several resident raptors, including jackal buzzard, Verreaux’s eagle and secretarybird. Populations of these species declined by over 50% in our study region.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the search results that mentions the specific declines of the jackal buzzard, Verreaux’s eagle, and secretarybird.

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Claim 17: “The remaining ten species (38%) showed no significant trends”

CORROBORATED

Two independent sources explicitly state that the remaining ten species (38%) showed no significant trends.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A Bantustan (also known as a Bantu homeland, a black homeland, a black state or simply known as a homeland; Afrikaans: Bantoestan or tuisland) was a territory that the National Party administration of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bantustan

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.