“Under an adverse scenario with larger and more persistent increases in energy prices, global growth would slow further to 2.5 percent in 2026, and inflation would reach 5.4%.”

“Under a more severe scenario in which there is more damage to energy infrastructure in the conflict region, the impact would be even larger: Global growth would be cut to only about 2% in 2026, while headline inflation would be just above 6% by 2027.”

“The impact on emerging market and developing economies would be almost twice that on advanced economies.”

“The global economy's current trajectory hinges on the conflict unleashed on 28 February 2026 by the US and Israel.”

“The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook represents a 'reference forecast' predicated on the assumption that the war will have limited duration, intensity, and scope.”

“This would mean a close call for a global recession (growth rate below 2%), which has happened only four times since 1980, with the latest two occasions corresponding to the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.”