Are Polymarket, Kalshi illegal? | The Jerusalem Post
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Read the original article: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-892692
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19 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.
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“Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow trading on the outcomes of future events, have gained considerable attention during the current war with Iran due to trading activity concerning the timing of a strike in Iran, which generated very substantial profits for several digital wallets on these platforms.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim only contains Wikipedia entries related to the general nature of Polymarket and Kalshi, but none of the evidence specifically mentions or corroborates the claim that these platforms gained attention due to trading activity concerning the timing of a strike in Iran, or that this generated substantial profits. The claim appears to be based on external context not supported by the provided evidence.
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wikipedia
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— Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
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wikipedia
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— Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia
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— The Republican Party's efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election were attempts to stunt voter access, election oversight, and post-election certification. They include strategies…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_efforts_to_di…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_efforts_to_di…
“The platforms in question operate, in effect, as prediction markets.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding whether Polymarket and Kalshi operate as prediction markets. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“Users do not "gamble" in the traditional sense; rather, they buy and sell contracts linked to the outcome of a specific future event.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding whether users buy and sell contracts linked to future events rather than engaging in traditional gambling. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“The price of the contract reflects the probability the market assigns to that event, and participants may buy and sell the contracts before the event is resolved.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding whether the contract price reflects the market's assigned probability or if contracts can be traded before the event occurs. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“at least some platforms in this field have obtained a federal license from the CFTC, the federal authority that oversees derivatives markets (financial instruments whose value is derived from another asset), to operate as a regulated trading venue for such contracts.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding any platforms obtaining a federal license from the CFTC to operate as a regulated trading venue for event-based contracts. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“The licensing is granted under the federal regulatory framework applicable to derivatives markets, and it allows the platform to operate a trading venue for event-based contracts under regulatory supervision.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding the specifics of CFTC licenses allowing event-based contract trading under federal regulatory supervision. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“Accordingly, at least under US federal law, this constitutes lawful and regulated activity.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found to confirm that the operation of these platforms constitutes lawful and regulated activity under US federal law. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“since gambling laws in the United States are determined at the state level, some states take the view that, in practice, this activity more closely resembles gambling, particularly where the underlying events are not economic in nature, such as sports outcomes or political events.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided for this claim consists of Wikipedia articles about unrelated topics (Kendrick Lamar, The Last of Us, Us (2019 film)). None of the evidence supports the claim that US states view this activity as resembling gambling when underlying events are non-economic. Therefore, the claim cannot be corroborated or verified using the provided evidence.
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wikipedia
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— "Not Like Us" is a diss track by the American rapper Kendrick Lamar released amidst his highly publicized feud with the Canadian rapper Drake. It was released on May 4, 2024, through Interscope Record…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_Like_Us
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_Like_Us
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wikipedia
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— The Last of Us is an action-adventure video game series and media franchise created by Naughty Dog and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment. The series is set in a post-apocalyptic United State…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_of_Us
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_of_Us
menu_book
wikipedia
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— Us is a 2019 American psychological horror film written and directed by Jordan Peele, and starring Lupita Nyong'o, Winston Duke, Elisabeth Moss and Tim Heidecker. The story follows Adelaide Wilson and…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_(2019_film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_(2019_film)
“Accordingly, several US states have taken enforcement actions and initiated legal proceedings against these platforms, on the grounds that state gambling laws override federal law, which treats this activity as trading.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding several US states initiating legal proceedings arguing that state gambling laws override federal law. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“In some cases, for example in Massachusetts, authorities have succeeded in persuading courts that this activity should be classified as gambling, and therefore subject to local gambling laws.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding courts ruling that the activity should be classified as gambling, such as in Massachusetts. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.
“In other cases, the platforms have obtained rulings supporting their position that the activity constitutes trading rather than gambling, and in one instance, in the State of Tennessee, a court granted Kalshi a temporary injunction against the state.”
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“First and foremost, it was argued that the contracts traded on these platforms are, in essence, financial contracts, namely derivatives whose value depends on the occurrence of a future event.”
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“Furthermore, the platforms contend that since they operate within trading venues regulated by the CFTC, oversight should be federal and uniform, rather than subject to varying regulation by each state under local gambling laws.”
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“The position of the CFTC is that event-based contracts may be classified as a type of financial derivative and therefore fall within the federal regulatory framework governing derivatives markets.”
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“Accordingly, the regulator has expressed the view that such activity should not be subject to parallel regulation under the gambling laws of individual states.”
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“Moreover, the CFTC has expressed a willingness to intervene in legal proceedings conducted in various states, in order to clarify to the courts that, in its view, the authority to regulate this field lies with it.”
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“It is also worth noting that in recent days, the CFTC published a brief statement clarifying that prediction markets are not a “gray area,” but rather part of the regulated derivatives market in the United States, a move that signals a more favorable regulatory approach toward platforms such as Kalshi, alongside a clear reminder that the applicable rules remain in force.”
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“Already today, it is evident that various countries are examining this activity cautiously, and some, such as Belgium and Germany, have even restricted access to such platforms on the grounds that they constitute gambling.”
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“In Israel, at least for the time being, there is no direct legal position regarding the legality of platforms such as Polymarket, and to date the issue has arisen mainly in specific contexts, for example the use of insider information.”
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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.