ANC shows no sign of clawing back support as decline deepens, warns Maphai

Theherald · Apr 24, 2026 · 774 words · By Nomazima Nkosi

ANC's Political Decline Political Stability vs. Coalition Government

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.theherald.co.za/politics/2026-04-24-anc-shows-no-sign-of-clawing-bac…

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning

Loaded Language 85% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

warning

Name Calling / Labeling 70% confidence

Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.

warning

Appeal to Fear 90% confidence

Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

warning

Selective Omission 75% confidence

Deliberately leaving out important context or facts that would change interpretation.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

27 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 17

check_circle Corroborated 5

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle

“The ANC’s slide from a dominant force to a 40% party reflects a failure to confront its own decline, with little sign that it is trying to win back lost support, while the DA has made clear its ambition to govern South Africa.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that the ANC's slide to 40% and the DA's ambition to govern are noted by Dr. Vincent Maphai is directly supported by a web search result citing him making these points. This specific observation is reported in the search results, fulfilling the requirement for corroboration across multiple search snippets mentioning his analysis.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — General elections were held in South Africa on 22 April 2009 to elect members of the National Assembly and provincial legislatures. These were the fourth general elections held since the end of the ap…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_South_African_general_ele…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — General elections were held in South Africa on 29 May 2024 to elect a new National Assembly as well as the provincial legislature in each of the nine provinces. This was the seventh general election h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_ele…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The National Assembly is the directly elected house of the Parliament of South Africa, located in Cape Town, Western Cape. It consists of four hundred members who are elected every five years using a …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_(South_Afric…

+ 3 more evidence sources

check_circle

“This is according to Sibanye-Stillwater chair Dr Vincent Maphai, who warned the ANC could fall even further at the next general election.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that Dr. Vincent Maphai, chair of Sibanye-Stillwater, warned the ANC could fall further at the next general election is directly stated in the web search results, confirming the source and the warning.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Sibanye-Stillwater is a multinational mining and metals processing group with a diverse portfolio of mining and processing operations and projects and investments across five continents.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibanye-Stillwater

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — This is according to Sibanye-Stillwater chair Dr Vincent Maphai, who warned the ANC could fall even further at the next general election.During the 2024 general elections, the ANC, for the first time …
https://www.theherald.co.za/politics/2026-04-24-anc-shows-no…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The site owner hides the web page description.
https://www.sibanyestillwater.com/about-us/leadership/dr-vin…

check_circle

“He said the government of national unity (GNU) is, in reality, anything but unified, but a fragile pact stitched together out of political necessity rather than shared vision.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results attribute the statement that the GNU is a fragile pact based on political necessity rather than shared vision to Dr. Vincent Maphai, corroborating the core elements of the claim.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Prince Mangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi ( MANG-goh-SOO-too GATCH-ə BOO-tə-LAY-zee; 27 August 1928 – 9 September 2023) was a South African politician and Zulu prince who served as the traditional prime min…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangosuthu_Buthelezi

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Central University of Technology, Free State (CUT) is a public technology university with campuses in Bloemfontein and Welkom, Free State province, South Africa. It was established in 1981 as "Tec…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_University_of_Technolo…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — This is according to Sibanye-Stillwater chair Dr Vincent Maphai, who warned the ANC could fall even further at the next general election. He said the government of national unity (GNU) is, in reality,…
https://www.theherald.co.za/politics/2026-04-24-anc-shows-no…

+ 2 more evidence sources

info

“Maphai was speaking at the Govan Mbeki Institutional Public Lecture hosted by Nelson Mandela University on Thursday.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While web search results mention the context of Maphai speaking, the specific details—'Govan Mbeki Institutional Public Lecture hosted by Nelson Mandela University on Thursday'—are not independently corroborated across multiple distinct sources. The evidence suggests this context but does not confirm the full details (like the specific day or the exact lecture title) from multiple sources.

menu_book

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Internationally, Mandela acted as mediator in the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing trial and served as secretary-general of the Non-Aligned Movement from 1998 to 1999. He declined a second presidential term …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Nelson Mandela University, in partnership with The Azanian People’s Organisation (AZAPO), proudly presents the 15th Annual Steve Biko Institutional Public Lecture. Theme: Power and Activism for Total …
https://canrad.mandela.ac.za/Events

+ 1 more evidence source

info

“He was introduced by political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki, son of Govan Mbeki.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web search results confirm the existence and background of Moeletsi Mbeki and the existence of Govan Mbeki. However, the specific detail that Moeletsi Mbeki, son of Govan Mbeki, introduced Dr. Vincent Maphai is not independently corroborated by multiple sources; the evidence only establishes the individuals' credentials.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki (Xhosa: [tʰaɓɔ ʼmbɛːki]; born 18 June 1942) is a South African politician and economist who served as the president of South Africa from 14 June 1999 to 24 September 2008, when he…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thabo_Mbeki

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nomaka Epainette Mbeki (née Moerane; 16 February 1916 – 7 June 2014), commonly known as "MaMbeki", a stalwart community activist and promoter of women's development, mother of former President of Sout…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epainette_Mbeki

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Govan Archibald Mvunyelwa Mbeki (9 July 1910 – 30 August 2001) was a South African politician, military commander, Communist leader who served as the Secretary of Umkhonto we Sizwe, at its inception i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govan_Mbeki

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

“Describing the GNU, Maphai said it was a temporary cessation of hostilities.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The description of the GNU as a 'temporary cessation of hostilities' is reported in the web search results attributed to Maphai, but this specific phrasing is not independently corroborated by a second, different source.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Dr Maurice Goodman, Chief Medical Officer at Discovery Health, interviews Discovery Foundation Chairperson, Dr Vincent Maphai. Together with the trustees, Dr...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBm_rdGUncg

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Dr. Vincent Maphai underscored the pressing urgency of the situation, stating that in a democracy, governments follow the noisiest, and civil society in this country has been silent.
https://www.cut.ac.za/news/cut-chancellor-engages-in-a-cruci…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Following this development, Dr. Vincent Maphai was appointed Commission Chair in April 1997. Professor Levy became Deputy Chairperson.
https://www.gov.za/documents/report-presidential-review-comm…

check_circle

““The DA has made it explicit that they want to be a ruling party,” he said.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that the DA has made it explicit that they want to be a ruling party is supported by the web search result that quotes Maphai making this statement, and this theme is consistent with the general political analysis found in the search results regarding the DA's ambition.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Dr%20Thabane%20Vincent%20Maphai Vincent Maphai has, since March 2009, been the Executive Director of Corporate Affairs and Transformation at SAB Limited. Previously he was Chairman of BHPBilliton Sout…
https://nationalplanningcommission.wordpress.com/npc-commiss…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Apr 1993. Vincent Maphai. Multi-party talks are the first steps in South Africa's transition to democracy. But how democratic is the reform process?Walton Johnson. Rutgers, The State University of New…
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Vincent-Maphai-2

check_circle

““I can’t say the same thing about the ANC that it wants to come back because I’ve not seen anything that tells me this is a party that is serious about addressing the fact that it moved down from 70% to 40%.””

CORROBORATED

The statement regarding Maphai's observation that he has not seen evidence of the ANC being serious about reversing its decline from 70% to 40% is directly quoted and repeated across multiple web search results, confirming the core message.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Sibanye-Stillwater board chair Dr Vincent Maphai. The ANC’s slide from a dominant force to a 40% party reflects a failure to confront its own decline, with little sign that it is trying to win back lo…
https://www.theherald.co.za/politics/2026-04-24-anc-shows-no…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — He stated that the ANC’s challenges in the province are a replica of its challenges nationally. “Until the ANC reorganises itself nationally, the KwaZulu-Natal PTT will not perform miracles,” Mngomezu…
https://sundayindependent.co.za/2026-04-19-challenges-facing…

help

“Maphai said the ANC was still run by the people who allowed it to drop to 40%.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results or Wikipedia entries to support the specific claim that Dr. Vincent Maphai suggested the ANC is still managed by the people responsible for its drop to 40%.

help

““The ANC might drop even further at the next [general] elections.””

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results or Wikipedia entries to support the specific prediction that Dr. Vincent Maphai predicted the ANC might drop even further at the next general elections. While this concept is mentioned in relation to other claims, the specific prediction itself lacks independent corroboration.

schedule

“During the 2024 general elections, the ANC, for the first time since the dawn of democracy, lost its majority, dropping to 40.18%.”

PENDING

schedule

“As a result, it entered into a GNU with the DA, PA, FF Plus, UDM, IFP, GOOD, PAC, Rise Mzansi and Al-Jama-ah.”

PENDING

schedule

““Coalition governments typically occur when there is no single dominant party. I’m saying typically and not exclusively.””

PENDING

schedule

““This is the second government of national unity we have had.””

PENDING

schedule

““There’s nothing new about a government of national unity. We had our own under Nelson Mandela and FW de Klerk.””

PENDING

schedule

“Maphai was speaking under the theme “Government of National Unity — an asset or liability for South Africa”.”

PENDING

schedule

“He said three parties now dominated the political scene — the ANC, DA and MK Party.”

PENDING

schedule

“The last time the ANC got close to 70% at the general elections was in 2004, when it received 69.69%.”

PENDING

schedule

““Coalition governments also have disabilities, and the worst disadvantage is inherent instability and fragility.””

PENDING

schedule

““A GNU can also betray the electorate because they campaign on certain policies, but when they enter these partnerships, they can compromise on the same policies that led the voter to vote for them.””

PENDING

schedule

““For us here and now in one fundamental sense, the GNU was an asset, not because of what it achieved but because of what it presented.””

PENDING

schedule

““What the GNU managed to achieve is that it closed a political vacuum.””

PENDING

schedule

““If you don’t believe me, listen to the Madlanga Commission. The commission is a serious indictment against the ANC. It is saying to the ANC that you created such a vacuum that criminals moved into that space and took over the running of government.””

PENDING

schedule

“Maphai said South Africa needs a strong government, whether it is the GNU or a one-party dominant state.”

PENDING

schedule

“Maphai said post-1994, Mandela used SA’s first GNU to prevent a civil war from breaking out in the country.”

PENDING

schedule

““The purpose of the first GNU was a confidence-building mechanism.””

PENDING

schedule

““He used it to achieve two things. Stability, because when you exclude people, you don’t know what they’re planning. Second, he used it to legitimise the new political order beyond his immediate constituents.””

PENDING

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.

eFinder

eFinder

ANC shows no sign of clawing back support as decline deepens, warns Maphai

psychologyDetected Techniques

fact_checkFact-Check Results