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An anomaly in global sea level rise is explained by deep ocean heating

Phys · · 958 words · By David Appell

The article reports on new scientific research published in Earth's Future, which analyzed global mean sea level (GMSL) since 2016. The study found that previous sea level 'budgets' were incomplete because they failed to account for deep ocean heating below 2,000 meters. The new research used reanalysis techniques, combining multiple data sources, to show that deep-sea warming accounts for a significant portion of the observed sea level rise.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.html

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10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

16 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 6
check_circle Corroborated 5
help Insufficient Evidence 2
report Misleading 1
info Single Source 1
verified Verified 1
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“Scientists found that up until 2016 that the global mean sea level (GMSL) "budget," accounting for all the energy flows that create sea level rise, was "closed," but since then it has developed a hole in it.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm the historical understanding that the GMSL budget was considered 'closed' up to 2015/2016. The evidence also corroborates the recent reporting of a 'non-closure' or 'hole' in the budget since that time, citing multiple data sources (Jason-3, Argo, GRACE/GRACE Follow-On).
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web search NEUTRAL — Scientists found that up until 2016 that the global mean sea level (GMSL) "budget," accounting for all the energy flows that create sea level rise, was "closed," but since then it has developed a hole…
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.…
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web search NEUTRAL — Over 1993–2016, studies have shown that the observed global mean sea level (GMSL). budget is closed within the current data uncertainties. However, non-closure of the budget was recently reported when…
https://hal.science/hal-03321243v1/document
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web search NEUTRAL — The sea level budget was closed until 2015–2016, that is, the observed global mean sea level agrees well with the sum of components.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310824210_El_Nino_L…
report
“Now a new examination of sea level in the global ocean since 2016 has closed the GMSL budget and brought the sea level books back into order.”
MISLEADING
The claim states that a new examination has 'closed' the GMSL budget. However, the evidence provided in the web search results (for both claim 0 and claim 1) repeatedly discuss the *non-closure* or 'hole' in the budget since 2016, suggesting the opposite of the claim's assertion. The evidence does not support the idea that the budget has been closed by a new examination.
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web search NEUTRAL — Now a new examination of sea level in the global ocean since 2016 has closed the GMSL budget and brought the sea level books back into order.
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.…
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web search NEUTRAL — Over 1993–2016, studies have shown that the observed global mean sea level (GMSL). budget is closed within the current data uncertainties. However, non-closure of the budget was recently reported when…
https://hal.science/hal-03321243v1/document
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web search NEUTRAL — Assessments of the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget over the satellite altimetry era (since the early 1990s) have concluded that the GMSL budget is closed within data uncertainties until 2016.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-7156591/v1
info
“The new research appears in the journal Earth's Future.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the web search results confirm that 'Earth's Future' is a journal that publishes articles related to the GMSL budget, the evidence does not provide enough context or corroboration to confirm that the specific research mentioned in the claim was published there. The evidence is limited to general information about the journal.
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web search NEUTRAL — Earth’s Future is a transdisciplinary, open access journal examining the state of the planet and its inhabitants, sustainable and resilient societies, the science of the Anthropocene, and predictions …
https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Earths-Future-2328-4277
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web search NEUTRAL — 3. The GMSL sea level budget. 4. Yearly velocities of GMSL budget components.Group, Citation2018). They are the components of what is called the GMSL budget that enable quantification of the budget cl…
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/27669645.2022.2…
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web search NEUTRAL — However, non-closure of the budget was recently reported when using Jason-3, Argo and GRACE/GRACE Follow-On data after 2016. This non-closure may result from errors in the data sets used to estimate t…
https://hal.science/hal-03321243/document
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“The contribution of the ocean depths over 2005 to 2022 is estimated to be 0.4 millimeters per year, about 10% of the observed GMSL rise over that period, to within an uncertainty of about 40%.”
CORROBORATED
The claim's specific figures (0.4 mm/year, 10% of observed rise, 40% uncertainty) are directly stated in a web search result, and the general concept—that deep ocean heat contributed a significant, previously underestimated amount to sea level rise from 2005 to 2022—is corroborated by the context of the other web search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — Deep ocean heat contributed approximately 0.4 mm/year, or about 10% of observed sea level rise from 2005 to 2022, with an uncertainty of 40%. This highlights the significant and previously underestima…
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.…
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web search NEUTRAL — The heat content of the global ocean has increased since at least 1970, and will continue to increase over the 21st century (virtually certain). The associated warming will likely continue until at le…
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/
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web search NEUTRAL — Since the year 2005, comparison with observed Argo-based ocean thermal expansion (down to ∼ 2000 m depth) may help quantifying any deep ocean contribution (below 2000 m). In effect, the sea level budg…
https://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/05/new-paper-finds-1…
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“The average depth of the world ocean—all the various oceans considered as one—is 3,682 meters, according to NOAA, but in places it goes much lower.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results cite the average depth of the world ocean as 3,682 meters, with one specifically attributing this figure to NOAA, corroborating the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — The average depth of the ocean is about 3,682 meters (12,080 feet). The lowest ocean depth on Earth is called the Challenger Deep and is located beneath the western Pacific Ocean in the southern end o…
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/oceandepth.html
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web search NEUTRAL — The average depth of the world ocean—all the various oceans considered as one—is 3,682 meters, according to NOAA, but in places it goes much lower.
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.…
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web search NEUTRAL — The average depth of the ocean is 12,080 feet (3,682 meters), making it impossible to visually observe unless you’re Aquaman or have a deep-sea submersible. As of June 2024, 26.1% of the global seaflo…
https://gizmodo.com/humans-have-never-seen-99-999-of-the-sea…
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“Beginning in the mid-2000s, an international collaboration has kept a global array of, now, over 4,000 Argo buoys in the ocean that continually bob up and down in the top 2,000 meters, measuring temperature, salinity, pressure and more in their water column.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that Argo is an international program using profiling floats to measure temperature and salinity. The evidence also corroborates the operational depth range (up to 2,000 meters) and the deployment method.
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web search NEUTRAL — Argo is an international programme for researching the ocean. It uses profiling floats to observe temperature, salinity and currents. Recently it has observed bio-optical properties in the Earth's oce…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)
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web search NEUTRAL — The Argo program is an international program that uses temperature/salinity profiling float to measure the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/argo/
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web search NEUTRAL — Each Argo profiler is deployed at sea from a research vessel. Once in the water, the float gradually descends to stabilize at a depth of around 1,000 meters. After about ten days, it makes a deeper di…
https://fondationtaraocean.org/en/scientific-news/argo-float…
verified
“In this way, scientists have been able to determine the increase in heat content in the 0–700 m region of the ocean and then the top 0–2000 m region of the ocean.”
VERIFIED
The evidence confirms that Argo is used to monitor ocean heat content. Specifically, one web search result directly quotes the finding that 'since 2005, the top 2,000 meters has warmed by about 220 zettajoules,' which supports the claim that Argo allows scientists to determine the increase in heat content in the top 2,000 meters.
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web search NEUTRAL — Argo is an international programme for researching the ocean. It uses profiling floats to observe temperature, salinity and currents. Recently it has observed bio-optical properties in the Earth's oce…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)
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web search NEUTRAL — (Ocean heat content data can be found here; since 2005, the top 2,000 meters has warmed by about 220 zettajoules, which works out to 0.67 watts per square meter of Earth's surface, or an average water…
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.…
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web search NEUTRAL — The increase of human loneliness caused by the advent of technology.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014019712…
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“Since 2005, the top 2,000 meters has warmed by about 220 zettajoules, which works out to 0.67 watts per square meter of Earth's surface, or an average water temperature change of 0.077°C, according to the author's calculations.”
CORROBORATED
The claim's specific figures (220 zettajoules, 0.077°C) are directly quoted in a web search result, and the general context of monitoring heat content in the top 2,000 meters since 2005 is supported by other web search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — Chart showing ocean temperature versus depth. The graph shows several thermoclines (or thermal layers) based on seasons and latitude. The temperature at zero depth is the sea surface temperature.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_temperature
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web search NEUTRAL — The lower chart tracks monthly changes in ocean heat content for the entire water column (from the top to the bottom of the ocean) from 1992 to 2019, integrating observations from satellites, in-water…
https://web.archive.org/web/20231020033606/https://climate.n…
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web search NEUTRAL — In 2024, ocean heat content rose yet again—by about 16 zettajoules, or 16 followed by 21 zeros, measured down to a depth of 2,000 meters.Here, the evolution of the heat content of the top 2,000 meters…
https://www.futura-sciences.com/en/oceans-absorbed-the-equiv…
help
“The Argo buoys do not reach [lower than 2,000 meters], though there are plans for Deep Argo buoys to reach down to 4,000–6,000 m.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
Although the claim describes the operational limits of Argo and the plans for Deep Argo, no evidence was provided in the search results to confirm the specific depth limits (2,000 meters for Argo, 4,000–6,000 meters for Deep Argo). The search results only generally mention depths up to 2,000 meters or 6,000 meters in passing, but do not confirm the precise structure of the claim.
help
“For example, the 20th Century Reanalysis (known as 20CRv3) used surface pressures and marine reports to estimate climate from 1836 to 2015, beginning before reliable thermometer data were available for many climate data groups.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was gathered regarding the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) or its specific use of surface pressures and marine reports to estimate climate from 1836 to 2015. Therefore, the claim cannot be confirmed or denied.
schedule
“The group used satellite altimetry data from Copernicus for global sea level rise, in situ ocean temperature data from 0 to 2,000 meters deep from five different ARGO temperature data sets, the changing ocean mass derived from mass models based on data from the GRACE satellite program, a database on global glacier mass balance.”
PENDING
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“They also used global glacier mass changes from Copernicus, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet mass balance, and land water storage as dams fill up (reducing sea level rise as the ocean surface evaporates but not all water is coming back) and top out (the overflow then adds to sea level).”
PENDING
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“For reanalysis of the ocean, they used the Cnr ISMAR Global historicAI Reanalysis (CIGAR) developed in 2024.”
PENDING
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“Putting it all together, the research group found that all of the sea level rise since 2016 could not be explained, until they included the effects of deep-sea warming.”
PENDING
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“That warming now accounts for 04 mm/year, about 10% of sea level rise.”
PENDING
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“Anny Cazenave et al, Evidence of Increased Deep Ocean Warming From a Sea Level Budget Approach, Earth's Future (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007403”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.