Albanese’s ratings jump in federal polls; Liberals easily retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 04, 2026 · 970 words · By Adrian Beaumont

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What to know about Albanese’s ratings jump in federal polls; Liberals easily retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

The article reports on recent polling data from Redbridge and Freshwater regarding political favorability and primary vote shares in Australia. It also provides results and analysis for a Victorian state byelection in Nepean and Tasmanian upper house elections in Huon and Rosevears.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 33

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center86%

Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

In both the Redbridge and Freshwater polls, Anthony Albanese’s net favourability has jumped eight points since late March to -9.

Why it matters

In Redbridge, the Coalition rebounded from a low of 17% in March to 22%.

Common ground

The Liberals have easily held the Victorian state seat of Nepean at a byelection on Saturday.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Albanese’s ratings jump in federal polls; Liberals easily retain Nepean at Victorian byelection?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/albaneses-ratings-jump-in-federal-polls-liberals-eas…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 33 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 23

check_circle Corroborated 4

help Insufficient Evidence 2

verified Verified By Reference 2

info Single Source 2

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Claim 1: “By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results mention Labor leading the Coalition 53-47 in polls from RedBridge Group.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leade…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…

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web search NEUTRAL — By respondent preferences, Labor led both the Coalition and One Nation by 53–47 (steady against the Coalition and a one-point gain for One Nation). Albanese’s net favourability was down four points to…
https://theconversation.com/trumps-unpopularity-shields-labo…

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web search NEUTRAL — Labor also leads the Coalition 53-47% in new polls from the RedBridge Group and Spectre Strategy. Respondent-allocated preference flows from various pollsters do not imply a big Coalition gain from th…
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/major-yougov-poll-has-l…

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Claim 2: “By 38–31, they thought the government was enforcing the social media ban on children under 16 poorly.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 3: “By 41–27, they were dissatisfied with the response to the rise in antisemitism.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 4: “The 15 members of Tasmania’s upper house have rotating six-year terms. Every May, two or three of the 15 seats are up for election.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 6: “US President Donald Trump had by far the worst net favourability with Australians, down three points since March to -58.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this specific claim.

schedule

Claim 7: “The current upper house has three Liberals, three Labor, one Green and eight independents.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 8: “A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll, conducted April 24–30 from a sample of 1,014, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote, One Nation 27%, the Coalition 22%, the Greens 13% and all Others 7%.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided web search results for this specific claim returned irrelevant content about 'dry bags' and general polling pages, failing to provide the specific primary vote percentages (Labor 31%, One Nation 27%, etc.) for the April 24-30 poll.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2028 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individ…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2028_Q…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 9: “Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 44%, with housing the only other issue in double digits at 12%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 44–38”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: “Combining the issue scores of Labor and the Greens against the Coalition and One Nation, the right led by 37–30 on cost of living, 33–28 on housing, 53–22 on immigration, 41–26 on national security and by 42–30 on economic management.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “By 63–31, respondents were aware of the government’s plans to cut the NDIS.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 13: “The Liberals have easily held the Victorian state seat of Nepean at a byelection on Saturday.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (The Saturday Paper, other web search results) and Wikipedia confirm that the Liberal Party won/retained the Victorian state seat of Nepean in a by-election held on a Saturday (May 2, 2026).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 2 May 2026 to elect the member of parliament for the district of Nepean in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. The election was triggered by the resignation of Sam Groth, a L…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nepean_state_by-election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The electoral district of Nepean is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly covering the southernmost part of the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria, Australia. It is named after Point Nepea…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Nepean

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of electoral results for the district of Nepean in Victorian state elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_dist…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 14: “The left’s one lead was on healthcare, by 35–31.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 15: “By 47–32, respondents were dissatisfied with the government over the rise in fuel prices”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 16: “By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results explicitly state that by respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54-46 in the Redbridge poll.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 13 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly will be up for election, along wi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_New_South_Wales_state_ele…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 17: “By 37–34, they were dissatisfied with the response to the Bondi terrorist attacks.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 18: “By 37–33, respondents were dissatisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 19: “Labor did not contest after receiving 32.6% at the 2022 election.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 20: “Primary votes were 38.5% for Liberal Anthony Marsh, 24.7% One Nation, 21.7% for teal independent Tracee Hutchison, 9.3% Greens and 2.9% Legalise Cannabis.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 21: “Labor led One Nation by 55–45”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm Labor led One Nation by 55-45 by respondent preferences in the Redbridge poll.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations."RedBridge-Accent rolling tracking poll shows Labor claws b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…

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web search NEUTRAL — A Victorian Resolve poll has Labor sliding back after a surge in August. Federal Labor had a 55–45 lead in Resolve and a 54–46 lead in Redbridge, with One Nation recording its highest vote in any poll…
https://theconversation.com/labor-slides-back-in-a-victorian…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — It gave Labor a 55-45 lead by respondent preferences, from primary votes of 33% Labor, 31% Coalition, 14% Greens, 10% One Nation and 11% for all Others. Freshwater's final poll before the 2025 electio…
https://www.miragenews.com/one-nation-gains-in-redbridge-lab…

schedule

Claim 22: “By 47–25, they supported the NDIS cuts.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 23: “Taylor’s was down four points to +10, Hanson’s was down five points to +5 and Canavan debuted at +4.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 24: “In Huon, Harriss won 30.4% of the primary vote, left-wing independent Clare Glade-Wright 27.8%, Labor 16.5%, the Greens 15.3% and two other independents a combined 10.0%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 25: “Marsh defeated Hutchison by 63.5–36.5”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 26: “In a three-way preferred PM question, there was no change, with Albanese at 33%, Hanson 23% and Taylor 14%.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this specific claim.

schedule

Claim 27: “A national Freshwater poll for News Corp, conducted April 28–30 from a sample of 1,046, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 25%, the Coalition 23%, the Greens 12% and all Others 8%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 28: “In both the Redbridge and Freshwater polls, Anthony Albanese’s net favourability has jumped eight points since late March to -9.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While web results mention Albanese's ratings jumping and a low of -21 in Newspoll, there is no specific evidence provided in the search results confirming the exact 'eight point jump to -9' specifically for both Redbridge and Freshwater polls since late March.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leade…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 29: “Angus Taylor was up one point to -2, Pauline Hanson up two points to -1, Nationals leader Matt Canavan up one point to -2, Greens leader Larissa Waters down one point to -4 and Energy Minister Chris Bowen down two points since December to -16.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided contains general information about Pauline Hanson and some conflicting favorability numbers (e.g., one source says Hanson slumped to -19), but does not provide the specific set of numbers for Taylor, Canavan, Waters, and Bowen as listed in the claim.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Lee Hanson (née Seccombe, formerly Zagorski; born 27 May 1954) is an Australian politician who is the founder and leader of One Nation. She has been a senator for Queensland since 2016, and wa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Hanson

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson’s leadership of One Nation has been given a stamp of approval from the majority of Australians surveyed in a Guardian Essential poll. Photograph: Lukas Coch/EPA.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/28/pauli…

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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net favourability slumped six points to -19 in this poll and Joyce’s net favourability was down four points to -27.
https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-dominant-lead-in…

info

Claim 30: “In Redbridge, the Coalition rebounded from a low of 17% in March to 22%.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions a Redbridge/Accent Research poll finding the Coalition on a primary vote of 'just 17 per cent', but the evidence does not explicitly confirm the rebound to 22% in the same context as a trend from March.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Redbridge London Borough Council, also known as Redbridge Council, is the local authority for the London Borough of Redbridge in Greater London, England. The council has been under Labour majority con…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redbridge_London_Borough_Counc…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 31: “In Rosevears, Palmer won 42.6% of the primary vote, Labor 24.7%, the Greens 16.8% and independent Susan Monson 16.0%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 32: “On Saturday, elections occurred in Huon (held by conservative independent Dean Harriss) and Rosevears (held by Liberal Jo Palmer).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 33: “A Victorian state byelection occurred in Liberal-held Nepean on Saturday after the resignation of MP Sam Groth.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.