Act fast: SA can create 2.4m new jobs by 2030 without new plans, BER finds | News24
Fact-Check Results
“The Bureau of Economic Research has developed three new economic scenarios for South Africa.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to confirm or refute the claim about Bureau of Economic Research developing scenarios.
“The most positive so-called 'fish eagle' scenario sets out 3% growth, a 3% budget deficit, and 3% inflation within three years, which would create a minimum of 2.4 million more jobs by 2030 than the economy produced in 2025.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to verify the specific economic figures or job projections in the 'fish eagle' scenario.
“Importantly, no new plans are required, just better and faster execution of existing initiatives.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to assess claims about requiring no new plans for economic scenarios.
“South Africa is facing critical choices that will determine whether the economy collapses back to 0.5% growth or soars to 3% by 2030.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to confirm the binary growth prediction for South Africa by 2030.
“The BER report notes that SA is also highly vulnerable to external economic shocks, like the current war in the Middle East.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to verify the BER report's mention of Middle East war as an economic shock.
“Fixed investments declined by 2.5% in 2025, the second annual decline, even though, on a quarterly basis, there was growth in the third and fourth quarters.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to confirm fixed investment data or quarterly growth trends in 2025.
“The BER crafted different scenarios for SA’s outlook around the hadeda (in which the status quo prevails), the marabou stork (in which South Africa slides towards becoming a failed state), and the African fish eagle (in which growth rises to 3% or more).”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to verify the BER's three scenario descriptions involving specific bird symbols.
“In the hadeda scenario: SA continues to muddle through... growth will remain below 2%.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to confirm the hadeda scenario's growth projections.
“The marabou scenario: a repeat of the lost decade of 2009-2019... growth would slow back to 0.5%.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to verify the marabou scenario's 0.5% growth forecast.
“The African fish eagle scenario: sustained economic growth of 3% or higher... would mean the creation of 2.4 million more jobs by 2030 than the economy produced in 2025.”
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INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
— No evidence found in archive to confirm the fish eagle scenario's job creation projections.
“BER’s baseline forecast is for economic growth to average only about 1.7% over the longer term.”
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