2026 Preakness Stakes picks: Best bets, long shots, predictions for Saturday’s Triple Crown race

Nypost · May 16, 2026 · 616 words · By Michael Leboff

Horse Racing Sports Betting Analysis

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What to know about Horse Racing

In most years, the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby profile as two very different races.

Claims checked 8

Techniques found 1

Topics 2

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

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Center0%

Right100%

1 source compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

In most years, the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby profile as two very different races.

Why it matters

The Derby is almost always about the sum of its parts.

Common ground

With a 20-horse field and a 150,000-capacity crowd, the spectacle is the star.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Horse Racing story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that He put together one of the best efforts of any 2-year-old in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last year?
How does this story connect Horse Racing with Sports Betting Analysis over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/05/16/betting/2026-preakness-stakes-picks-best-bets-long…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 8 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 6

verified Verified By Reference 1

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “He put together one of the best efforts of any 2-year-old in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last year”

CORROBORATED

Three independent sources confirm Napoleon Solo won the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct as a 2-year-old with historic fractions.

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web search NEUTRAL — Napoleon Solo wins the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack. Coglianese Photos.4 to watch his 2-year-old Napoleon Solo win the Champagne Stakes (G1), he still got a taste of the bubbly.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/287704/napo…

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web search NEUTRAL — Napoleon Solo ran historic Champagne Stakes fractions at age 2. Here is why his Preakness 2026 speed could carry him wire-to-wire at 8-1.He won by six and a half lengths and earned a Brisnet speed fig…
https://hellorookie.com/napoleon-solo-preakness-2026-why-thi…

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web search NEUTRAL — Napoleon Solo brings Grade 1 speed credentials and historic Champagne Stakes fractions into the 2026 Preakness. At 8-1 from Post 10, the question is simple: can he get the lead uncontested?
https://bettorsinsider.com/horse-racing/2026/05/15/napoleon-…

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Claim 2: “the absence of Golden Tempo and all the other juggernauts from the Derby has opened up the Preakness”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and multiple news sources confirm Golden Tempo won the 152nd Kentucky Derby and is not running in the Preakness Stakes.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Kentucky Derby (branded as the 152nd Running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve for sponsorship reasons) was the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby. It took place on May 2, …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kentucky_Derby

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Preakness Stakes will be the 151st running of the Preakness Stakes, a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of 1+3⁄16 miles (9+1⁄2 furlongs; 1,911 meters). It is …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Preakness_Stakes

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Golden Tempo (foaled February 7, 2023) is an American thoroughbred racehorse bred by Phipps Stable. In May 2026, Golden Tempo won the Grade I Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Tempo

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 3: “With a 20-horse field and a 150,000-capacity crowd, the spectacle is the star.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm the 150,000 crowd capacity (Racing Dudes) and the 20-horse field for the 152nd Kentucky Derby (Live Leaderboard/Web search).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023 Kentucky Derby (branded as the 149th Running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve for sponsorship reasons) was the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. It took place on May 6, …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Kentucky_Derby

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Kentucky Derby () is an American Grade I stakes race run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The race is run by three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of 1+1⁄4 miles (10 furlongs; 2,01…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Derby

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 4: “For the second year in a row, the winner of the Kentucky Derby has opted to skip the Preakness”

CORROBORATED

Two independent web search results explicitly state that Golden Tempo is the second consecutive Derby winner to skip the Preakness, following Sovereignty.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2025 Preakness Stakes was the 150th Preakness Stakes, a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of 1+3⁄16 miles (9+1⁄2 furlongs; 1,911 metres). The race is the second of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Preakness_Stakes

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Preakness Stakes is an American thoroughbred horse race held annually on the third Saturday in May at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland (except in 2026 when it will move to Laurel Park du…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preakness_Stakes

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 5: “he’s getting a huge jockey upgrade with Irad Ortiz Jr. hopping aboard for the Preakness.”

CORROBORATED

Two independent sources confirm Irad Ortiz Jr. is riding Talkin (or Talkin Saturday) in the Preakness.

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web search NEUTRAL — Irad Ortiz Jr. is a Puerto Rican jockey who has been a leading rider in the New York Thoroughbred horse racing circuit since 2012. He won his first Breeders' Cup race on Lady Eli in 2014, and his firs…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irad_Ortiz_Jr.

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web search NEUTRAL — Which horses will run in the 2026 Preakness Stakes at Laurel Park? With Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo out, here's a look at the field.Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Sire: Tacitus. Re…
https://www.aol.com/articles/run-preakness-2026-horses-watch…

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web search NEUTRAL — Key PointsIrad Ortiz, Jr. will ride Talkin Saturday in the Preakness after Silent Tactic was scratched.Taj Mahal, trained by Brittany Russell, is a local favorite and unbeaten at Laurel Park.
https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/preakness-update…

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Claim 6: “his latest win coming in a laugher at the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 18.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm Taj Mahal won the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 18, 2026, describing it as a dominant victory.

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web search NEUTRAL — April 18 2026.Taj Mahal took the lead right out of the starting gate and never looked back as he cruised to an eight-and-a-quarter length victory in the $150,000 Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park o…
https://www.darleyamerica.com/news/taj-mahal-rockets-victory…

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web search NEUTRAL — Taj Mahal Dusts Federico Tesio Field.Tesio fair odds: Preakness prep features late classic nominees. 18 Apr. By Ed Derosa. Save for later.
https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqNggKIjBDQklTSGpvSmMzUnZj…

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web search NEUTRAL — Taj Mahal dominated the Federico Tesio Stakes. Photo by Allison Janezic. Taj Mahal is now 3-for-3 in his young career with earnings of $178,200. Off as the 6-5 favorite, he paid $4.40 to win and toppe…
https://www.theracingbiz.com/2026/04/18/lrl-taj-mahal-dazzle…

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Claim 7: “Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While there are 5 cross-references, they all originate from the same organization (Nypost), meaning there is only one independent source for this claim.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Michael Leboff... with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry
https://nypost.com/2026/05/07/betting/hurricanes-vs-flyers-g…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Michael Leboff... [has] 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.
https://nypost.com/2026/05/09/betting/kalshi-promo-code-nypm…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Michael Leboff... with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.
https://nypost.com/2026/04/17/betting/betmgm-bonus-code-nypd…

+ 2 more evidence sources

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Claim 8: “The local product is 3-for-3 in his career, with all three victories coming over the surface at Laurel Park.”

CORROBORATED

Three independent web search results confirm Taj Mahal is 3-for-3 in his career with all wins occurring at Laurel Park.

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web search NEUTRAL — Taj Mahal is undefeated in three career starts, all at his home track of Laurel Park, including victories in the Miracle Wood Stakes and the Federico Tesio Stakes. The bay colt will break from the tri…
https://evrimagaci.org/gpt/fourteen-horses-set-for-historic-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Taj Mahal has three wins in three starts, all at Laurel. He'll be on the inside after drawing the No. 1 post Monday. "It is what it is. We'll just have to see how it goes," Russell said. "He's a good …
https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/iron-honor-slight-9-2…

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web search NEUTRAL — Russell’s husband, six-time Laurel leading rider Sheldon Russell, has been aboard Taj Mahal each of his three starts, all wins at Laurel, and will ride again in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness.
https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/preakness-update…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.